Shea McClellin: Forecasting 2016 production
Welcome to our fifth installment in a 12-part series in which we are forecasting the 2016 production of each of the New England Patriots’ offseason veteran additions. Today, we’re projecting the debut season of Shea McClellin in a Patriots uniform.
In case you missed them, here are the first four installments in the series:
Forecasting Chris Long’s 2016 production
Forecasting Chris Hogan’s 2016 production
Forecasting Nate Washington’s 2016 production
Forecasting Martellus Bennett’s 2016 production
The skinny: To address a void in the linebacker depth chart after the retirement of Jerod Mayo, the Patriots signed former Chicago Bears first round pick McClellin to a three-year, $12 million deal with $3.5 million guaranteed. When the deal went down, my colleague Cyrus Geller noted that the hefty guaranteed money is somewhat uncharacteristic of Bill Belichick, so it’s clear the Patriots are keen on McClellin.
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Pessimistic forecast: The consistency issues that plagued McClellin in Chicago only persists in New England. In training camp, he gets overshadowed by returner Jonathan Freeny and former Bears teammate Jon Bostic, and McClellin loses out on the No. 3 role. He gets onto the field as injuries pile up, but McClellin’s signing is largely viewed as a disappointment.
Pessimistic stats projection: 34 combined tackles, no sacks, no forced fumbles/recoveries, no interceptions
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Optimistic forecast: McClellin’s dual skill set as a coverage linebacker and run stopper impress coaches in training camp, and he becomes the sure-fire No. 3 guy behind superstars Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins. When the Patriots elect to use three linebackers, McClellin subs in for the nickel corner and the Patriots boast three starting-caliber players behind their stacked defensive line, giving them one of the best front sevens in the NFL.
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All in all, a change of scenery benefits McClellin and he reminds the league why he was a first round pick back in 2012. If and when injuries hit HIghtower and Collins, the Patriots have a great insurance plan in place with McClellin on the roster.
Optimistic stats projection: 67 combined tackles, 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 interceptions
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Realistic forecast: McClellin proves his worth in training camp but shares the No. 3 role with Freeny, who is familiar in the Patriots’ defensive scheme having spent 2015 in New England. The Patriots use McClellin more in coverage and Freeny more in run defense. If the injury bug becomes a reality, McClellin and Freeny split starting duties.
Realistic stats projection: 50 combined tackles, 2.5 sacks, forced fumble, fumble recovery, interception
Next: 5 positions Patriots will address in 2016 NFL Draft
Stay tuned here on Musket Fire for coverage on every twist and turn in the Patriots’ offseason.