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Chris Long: Forecasting 2016 production

By Connor Fulton

Nov 29, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill (32) is tackled by St. Louis Rams defensive end Chris Long (91) and middle linebacker James Laurinaitis (right) in the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals won 31-7. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 29, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill (32) is tackled by St. Louis Rams defensive end Chris Long (91) and middle linebacker James Laurinaitis (right) in the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals won 31-7. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /
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Welcome to our fourth installment in a 12-part series in which we are forecasting the 2016 production of each of the New England Patriots’ offseason veteran additions. Today, we’re projecting the debut season of Chris Long in a Patriots uniform.

In case you missed them, here are the first three installments in the series:

Forecasting Chris Hogan’s 2016 production

Forecasting Nate Washington’s 2016 production

Forecasting Martellus Bennett’s 2016 production

The skinny: After turning down more money elsewhere, Long signed a one-year deal with a team that he knows will give him a chance to win. After the departure of Chandler Jones, it was a brilliant move on the Patriots’ part to bring a proven veteran pass rusher on board for such a low cost.

MUST READ: 2016 NFL Draft: 6 WRs Patriots should mull over

Pessimistic forecast: Long’s decline from stardom continues. Before getting too excited about Long, fans should be aware that he has recorded just four sacks over the past two seasons. There is reason to be concerned that Long will disappoint in New England considering his recent performance.

Pessimistic stats projection: 2 sacks

MUST READ: Top 6 breakout candidates on defense

Optimistic forecast: A change of scenery renews Long’s stardom, and he is everything and more that the Patriots could ask for. Long coexists perfectly with defensive ends Jabaal Sheard and Rob Ninkovich, and the Patriots boast one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Not only does Long post his best numbers since the 2012 season, but also he matches Jones’ 2015 production.

Optimistic stats projection: 11.5 sacks

MUST READ: 6 CBs Patriots should mull over in 2016 NFL Draft

Realistic forecast: Long does all he needs to do, and that is to serve as an active, energetic member of a deep Patriots’ pass rush. With established returners Sheard and Ninkovich doing the heavy lifting and sophomore pros Geneo Grissom and Trey Flowers clawing their way onto the field, Long doesn’t have to produce Pro Bowl numbers. All season, Long applies constant pressure on the quarterback and gets a chance at what he wants most, a ring.

Realistic stats projection: 5.5 sacks

Next: 6 WRs Pats should consider in 2016 NFL Draft

Stay tuned here on Musket Fire for coverage on every twist and turn in the Patriots’ offseason.

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