It’s been over seven months since Super Bowl LX, but the national perception of the New England Patriots hasn’t budged. The prevailing theme is that the 2025 Patriots were propped up by an easy schedule and some bizarre injury luck.
Some of those points are impossible to argue with. The Chargers were running out of playable offensive linemen by the time the wild-card round rolled around. The Texans were without top wide receiver Nico Collins in the divisional round.
The Broncos famously had to start former Patriots draft bust Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship Game after starter Bo Nix led their team to a gritty playoff win over Buffalo.
But most of the commentary has focused on quarterback Drake Maye and an offense that struggled to sustain drives, protect the football, and score points in the playoffs.
Those expecting that to continue after the Patriots’ offseason additions are missing the point.
ESPN insider Dan Graziano believes the opposite. Based on what Graziano is hearing, the Patriots’ offense, with Maye entering Year 3 and new wide receiver duo A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs joining the huddle, is the unit opposing teams are fearing entering 2026.
Mike Vrabel's defense could be headed for a significant drop-off.
“The Patriots believe they've made major improvements to the offense with the additions of wide receivers A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs," Graziano wrote. "They believe they've improved the offensive line and that the young linemen who struggled in the Super Bowl will be better this year.
The Pats might take a step back defensively if they don't get the kind of luck they got last season with opposing QBs, but the offense should remain excellent.”
The Patriots' path back to the playoffs depends on the defense avoiding a step backward
Vrabel’s defense was arguably the most dominant unit of the NFL’s 14 playoff qualifiers last year. They surrendered just 49 points to opposing offenses, averaging 12.25 per game. They also piled up 13 sacks and eight total takeaways, including a Marcus Jones pick-six against Houston.
But while Maye seems to receive the bulk of the criticism for facing three quarterbacks — Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Stidham — who all played extremely poorly in the playoffs, that argument has and always will be flawed.
Maye struggled himself, but he did so against a historic gauntlet; the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, and Seahawks all ranked inside the NFL’s top six in total defense.
“Carolina, Buffalo, New Orleans, Cleveland and Atlanta finished in the top half of the league in total defense, and the Patriots beat them all (though, again, they also lost once to the Bills),” Graziano wrote. “In their postseason run, the Pats beat the teams that finished fifth, first and second in total defense before ultimately losing the Super Bowl to the team that finished sixth. Drake Maye's near-MVP season wasn't the result of playing cupcake defenses. Heck, he won a game in which Myles Garrett had five sacks.”
It was the Patriots’ defense that benefited most from last year’s playoff path.
Vrabel’s group feasted on the Chargers’ patchwork offensive line to the tune of 39 total pressures on Herbert, per Pro Football Focus, and six sacks. The Patriots shut down the Texans’ run game in the divisional round, leaving Stroud overwhelmed in the Foxboro weather with Christian Kirk as his best wide receiver.
The Stidham game in Denver speaks for itself.
A tougher slate of quarterbacks and thinner defensive depth could test Mike Vrabel's team
According to ESPN columnist Bill Barnwell, the Patriots were one of the NFL’s healthiest defenses in 2025, ranking fifth in “adjusted games lost” due to injuries.
New England went stretches without cornerback Christian Gonzalez, defensive tackle Milton Williams, edge Harold Landry III, and linebacker Robert Spillane, but they still managed to win 10 consecutive games in October and November.
A key reason was breakout performances from role players like edge K’Lavion Chaisson, safeties Craig Woodson and Jaylinn Hawkins, and nose tackle Khyiris Tonga.
Entering 2026, only Woodson, a fourth-round draft pick last year, remains from that “breakout” group. Gonzalez remains engaged in a very public contract dispute. Spillane was slowed by injuries last year and is now entering his age-31 season. Landry will miss at least the first four games of the regular season after not getting activated off the physically unable to perform list this summer.
Assuming the Patriots’ injury luck regresses back to the mean this year, New England’s suspect depth on defense will be tested.
The starting edge rushers entering Week 1 are Dre’Mont Jones and former UDFA Elijah Ponder. The cornerback depth behind Gonzalez and fellow starter Carlton Davis thins out in a hurry. You could say the same thing about the linebackers behind Spillane and Christian Elliss.
As for the 2026 schedule, the Patriots will face 10 of the NFL’s top 15 offenses based on 2025 expected points added, per SumerSports: Buffalo (twice), Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, Denver, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Seattle, and Pittsburgh.
Folks can call out Maye as “overrated” all they want, but it's the Patriots' defense that should be under the microscope right now.
As the Gonzalez negotiations drag on, it’s fair for fans to wonder whether Vrabel added enough reinforcements on defense to combat this year's major uptick in competition.
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