Head coach Mike Vrabel, quarterback Drake Maye, and the New England Patriots took fans on a joy ride last season. Few had the Patriots making the playoffs, let alone unseating the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East and making a run all the way to the Super Bowl.
The Patriots won 14 games — 17 total if you count the postseason. They went 9-0 in true road contests and won 10 straight through October and November.Â
With a new-look roster and much tougher schedule on tap, a repeat of those feats feels a bit far-fetched with the regular season opener now just a week away.
But as this deep dive into the Patriots’ 2026 path proves, it’s not nearly as impossible as the NFL world seems to believe.
The Patriots still have their head coach, quarterback, and top coordinators from last season, so that’s a start. They also have two new skill position weapons to unveil in A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, a stabilized offensive line, and an influx of veteran defenders who should help keep Vrabel’s unit among the league’s toughest to play against.
But, again, all anyone wants to talk about with the Patriots is the schedule, so let’s get into it.
Predicting the New England Patriots’ final 2026 record with Week 1 on the horizon
Week 1: at Seattle SeahawksÂ
On Schedule Release Day, this felt like a scheduled loss. The Patriots had no answers for the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX, especially on offense.
But drawing Seattle on a random Wednesday night to open the season may actually be a blessing.
You don’t get automatic points on the scoreboard for raising a banner. And while crowd noise will definitely be an issue, teams don’t just carry momentum into the next season. The Seahawks are starting back at square one and will have to earn it all over again, just like every other contender.
Seattle will be formidable, but it won’t be the same well-oiled machine we saw back in February. Weird things happen all the time in Week 1 — especially with underdog teams that have been disrespected nationally for six months.
The Warriors strike again.
Patriots 23, Seahawks 20
(Projected record: 1-0)
Week 2: vs. Pittsburgh SteelersÂ
The season-opening result won’t make-or-break the Patriots’ season — but the potential momentum from a win at Seattle can’t be understated. New England will have 10 days off to recover and get a head start on its home opener against the Steelers.
Gillette Stadium will be rocking for this one. Pittsburgh beat the Patriots in Foxboro early in 2025, but New England lost four fumbles and threw an interception in that game.
The Steelers are a full tier or two below the Patriots entering 2026.
Patriots 27, Steelers 14
(Projected record: 2-0)
Week 3: at Jacksonville Jaguars
This is where the Patriots begin to hit a normal cadence of Sunday 1 p.m. kickoffs, which was an underrated factor in their 2025 success. The Jaguars will be the second of five straight games played in the early window.
You could argue that this matchup is tougher than Week 1 at Seattle. Jacksonville is no fluke. This will be an extremely physical game played in the Florida heat in September. There’s not much to like about this one from a Patriots’ perspective.
If New England drops one of its first three games, this could be it.
Jaguars 26, Patriots 21
(Projected record: 2-1)
Week 4: at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots’ latest Super Bowl run may not have happened without their Week 5 win at Buffalo on Sunday Night Football. Maye traded punches with Josh Allen throughout the second half, the defense got critical stops down the stretch, and the Patriots stunned Bills Mafia in one of the best regular-season atmospheres you'll see.
The Patriots match up extremely well with the Bills, and maybe even better now with their roster additions this offseason. This is also a sneaky good spot for New England, with all the pressure on the Bills and their rookie head coach inside the new Highmark Stadium during the first weekend of October.
If the Patriots split with the Bills again this year, their win will come Week 4 on the road.
Patriots 35, Bills 31
(Projected record: 3-1)
Week 5: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This could be viewed as an early trap game, as the Patriots should be monster favorites in this one no matter how the first four games shake out. But Vrabel will have an easy motivating tool throughout the week: The Raiders came into Foxboro and beat the Patriots in the 2025 season opener.
New England will likely be facing a 38-year-old Kirk Cousins and a Raiders team that’s still miles away from contention. Not much more needs to be said.
Patriots 34, Raiders 10
(Projected record: 4-1)
Week 6: vs. New York Jets
Speaking of miles from contention, Jets week is always fun for the Patriots and their fans. New England has won 18 of the last 20 matchups with its bitter but often overmatched division rival.Â
The Jets were brutal in Aaron Glenn’s first season as head coach before they traded away their two best defensive players in Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Oh, and Geno Smith was their solution at quarterback this offseason.Â
Who's next?
Patriots 28, Jets 7
(Projected record: 5-1)
Week 7: at Chicago Bears (TNF)
There are plenty of reasons to fear this Thursday Night Football spot against the Bears. Chicago is an unfamiliar opponent that’s tough to prepare for on a short week. Say what you will about Ben Johnson, but he’s one of the game’s most lethal offensive minds.
As much as we love the spot for the Patriots in Week 4 at Buffalo, this is a tough one. The Bears are capable of scoring points in bunches, especially at home where they went 6-2 last season. Their defense also led the NFL in takeaways in 2025.
Not loving it.
Bears 20, Patriots 17
(Projected record: 5-2)
Week 8: at Miami DolphinsÂ
The Dolphins never make it easy for the Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium, especially if that game falls in the first half of the year.Â
The good news? New England will be coming off extended rest and the Dolphins might have the worst overall roster in football entering Week 1.
Patriots 38, Dolphins 10
(Projected record: 6-2)
Week 9: vs. Green Bay Packers
This is a tough game to handicap. The Patriots will get Green Bay at home, which should work in their favor. The Packers are also an unfamiliar opponent with an established program under Matt LaFleur and a solid veteran quarterback in Jordan Love.
A lot of what Green Bay does on offense stems off the run game, though, and the Josh Jacobs situation could play a major role. Will Jacobs be removed from the Commissioner’s Exempt List by Week 9 of the regular season? What will Green Bay’s run game look like? And will they even be able to contain wide receiver Romeo Doubs in his revenge game?
Those are enough question marks to give the Patriots a slight edge.
Patriots 27, Packers 23
(Projected record: 7-2)
Week 10: vs. Detroit Lions (NFL Munich Game)
Make that back-to-back games against the NFC North, with this one adding the extra element of having to travel to Germany.Â
The Lions would be tough to play in any country, state, or stadium. But they weren’t awesome last year (9-8). Detroit ranked in the bottom third of the league in both scoring defense and takeaways, and it’s fair to question where the offense truly stands without Johnson as the play caller.Â
The Patriots caught a break with this one not being played at Ford Field, which was on the table had this game not been picked for the NFL’s international slate. They’ll have to contain a good running back in Jahmyr Gibbs, but this is a fine spot for the Patriots in a neutral site.
Patriots 34, Lions 27
(Projected record: 8-2)
Week 11: Bye weekÂ
Predicting the Patriots to hit their bye week at 8-2 probably sounds overly optimistic, but that’s only if you’ve been buying what the national media and talking heads have been selling you all offseason.
Of the Patriots’ first four games, the toughest on paper in terms of opponent and overall spot is Jacksonville, Chicago, Seattle, and Buffalo. If New England can split those four games, two or three losses at the bye is more than feasible.
Week 12: at Los Angeles Chargers (SNF)
The spot seems to favor the Patriots, who will be coming off a bye and facing a Chargers team fresh off a tough stretch of games: Rams (away, but they share a stadium), Texans (home), Ravens (road on Monday Night Football), and Jets (home).
New England also played the Chargers last season in the playoffs and had some success against Justin Herbert and his injury-depleted offensive line.Â
Herbert and the Chargers should be much more formidable in this one, though, and the Patriots didn’t play their best game out of the bye week last season. They’ll also have to deal with another long flight.
The prediction here is that weird things happen at SoFi Stadium on this night, and it doesn’t play in the Patriots’ favor.
Chargers 22, Patriots 18
(Projected record: 8-3)
Week 13: vs. Buffalo BillsÂ
Allen put on the Superman cape and willed the Bills to victory in their game in Foxboro last December. We’ll give him the edge to do the same here.
The Patriots and Bills feel close to dead-even entering 2026, so it would be an injustice to predict a sweep for either side.
Bills 31, Patriots 28
(Projected record: 8-4)
Week 14: vs. Minnesota (TNF)
The Patriots aren’t only facing a tougher path this year due to the opponents. From Week 6 on, they only have one game currently scheduled for a 1 p.m. kickoff.
They get a second Thursday night matchup here, this one at home against an unfamiliar Vikings team that basically has two head coaches on the sideline in Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores.Â
This could be one of those games where Flores makes life difficult for the 24-year-old Maye on a short week. The big question mark for Minnesota, though, is quarterback play.
Will Kyler Murray still be under center by Dec. 10? And even if he is, will he be playing well enough to keep the Vikings in contention in the loaded NFC North?
This one feels like a coin flip, so the edge goes to the team with a solidified franchise quarterback.
Patriots 21, Vikings 20
(Projected record: 9-4)
Week 15: at Kansas City Chiefs (MNF)
This is another spot that looks a lot worse on paper for the Patriots than it actually is.Â
If you have to play Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, you might as well get them on a Monday night with Kansas City coming off three consecutive road games against the Bills, Rams, and Bengals.
The Patriots will have 10 days to rest and prepare for what will be Maye’s first head-to-head matchup with Mahomes. He should be well positioned to make the most of the opportunity.
Patriots 30, Chiefs 27
(Projected record: 10-4)
Week 16: at New York Jets
This feels like a perfect time for an AFC East speed bump. The Patriots will have to be careful not to be looking ahead to their Week 17 matchup with Denver, but the Jets will probably be looking ahead to the 2027 draft at this point.
Patriots 24, Jets 3
(Projected record: 11-4)
Week 17: vs. Denver BroncosÂ
By the time this game kicks off, it will be January, marking almost a full year of NFL fans blindly stating that Denver would have played in the Super Bowl had Bo Nix not suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the AFC Championship Game.
The impact that injury had on the game is undeniable. It’s also impossible to deny that the second half was played in a blizzard and no one was going to be able to throw the football with any consistency.
The Patriots obviously would have approached the game differently from a coaching standpoint had Nix played. We’ll never know what really would have happened. That’s sports.
We do know this — the Patriots will get Denver at home with plenty of motivation to set the record straight. You could say the same thing about the Broncos in what could be one of the games of the year.
Broncos 28, Patriots 26
(Projected record: 11-5)
Week 18: vs. Miami Dolphins
A January game in Foxboro for the Dolphins is about as easy to predict as it gets.
Patriots 28, Dolphins 0
Final 2026 projected record: 12-5
This is shaping up to be one of the most fun and entertaining Patriots seasons in recent memory. Last year, they snuck up on a lot of teams, feasted on a creampuff schedule, and rode a tidal wave of momentum into the playoffs.
This year’s run will look different, and it’s hard to find a realistic path to 14 wins again. But if the over/under is set at 10.5, the Patriots are a good bet to hit the over.
Vrabel has his system in place. Maye is entering Year 3. The team added fresh talent at the right positions. Barring injuries, the Patriots should be able to go toe-to-toe with any team in football and let the best team win.
The prediction here is that the Patriots will be that team more often than not on their way to repeating as AFC East champions.Â
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