AFC East: Ranking Run Defense: Bills and Fins edge Pats and Jets
By Jon Galvin
Previously, on the offensive side, I ranked the receiving and running games and, on the defensive side, the pass coverage groups in the AFC East. I’ll now examine the run defense for each AFC East team.
To estimate the strength of the run defense for each AFC East team in 2023, I looked at team depth charts and draftees and chose who I believe will be each team’s top four defensive linemen, top three linebackers, and top safety used against the run.
The data used in the table below are derived from Pro Football Focus run defense player grades for each player in the years 2022 and 2021. If the player was in college in one or both of those years, I used the data from his NCAA time.
The idea in this table, like in my previous analyses, was to use the last two years of play to provide a more accurate sample. Like fans and fantasy players looking forward to the 2023 season, I’m more interested in projecting what these groups are capable of in 2023 than in what they did in the past.
Team Name | Player Name | Player Grade 2022 | Player Grade 2021 | Two-Year Avg. Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | Greg Rousseau | 64.60 | 68.60 | 66.60 |
Buffalo Bills | Daquan Jones | 66.20 | 59.50 | 62.85 |
Buffalo Bills | Ed Oliver | 65.00 | 57.90 | 61.45 |
Buffalo Bills | Von Miller | 78.80 | 88.20 | 83.50 |
Buffalo Bills | Matt Milano | 59.30 | 68.30 | 63.80 |
Buffalo Bills | Terrel Bernard | 75.50 | 78.90 | 77.20 |
Buffalo Bills | Tyrel Dodson | 55.70 | 58.90 | 57.30 |
Buffalo Bills | Micah Hyde | 55.10 | 75.20 | 65.15 |
Team Average | 65.03 | 69.44 | 67.23 | |
Miami Dolphins | Zach Sieler | 77.90 | 79.70 | 78.80 |
Miami Dolphins | Raekwon Davis | 37.30 | 36.10 | 36.70 |
Miami Dolphins | Christian Wilkins | 78.90 | 80.80 | 79.85 |
Miami Dolphins | Bradley Chubb | 52.50 | 64.20 | 58.35 |
Miami Dolphins | Jaelan Phillips | 74.80 | 44.80 | 59.80 |
Miami Dolphins | David Long | 89.00 | 66.60 | 77.80 |
Miami Dolphins | Jerome Baker | 69.60 | 42.40 | 56.00 |
Miami Dolphins | Jevon Holland | 67.60 | 77.00 | 72.30 |
Team Average | 68.45 | 61.45 | 64.95 | |
New England Patriots | Davon Godchaux | 52.90 | 64.50 | 58.70 |
New England Patriots | Deatrich Wise, Jr. | 59.70 | 58.90 | 59.30 |
New England Patriots | Lawrence Guy, Sr. | 51.40 | 62.80 | 57.10 |
New England Patriots | Matthew Judon | 67.00 | 52.50 | 59.75 |
New England Patriots | Ja'Whaun Bentley | 83.80 | 68.30 | 76.05 |
New England Patriots | Jahlani Tavai | 69.20 | 74.10 | 71.65 |
New England Patriots | Josh Uche | 63.70 | 33.30 | 48.50 |
New England Patriots | Kyle Dugger | 76.50 | 58.80 | 67.75 |
Team Average | 65.55 | 59.15 | 62.35 | |
New York Jets | John Franklin-Meyers | 76.80 | 75.50 | 76.15 |
New York Jets | Quinton Jefferson | 39.00 | 42.10 | 40.55 |
New York Jets | Quinnen Williams | 77.70 | 59.00 | 68.35 |
New York Jets | Carl Lawson | 48.80 | 61.10 | 54.95 |
New York Jets | Quincy Williams | 60.80 | 41.70 | 51.25 |
New York Jets | C.J. Moseley | 51.10 | 54.70 | 52.90 |
New York Jets | Jamien Sherwood | 80.40 | 69.60 | 75.00 |
New York Jets | Chuck Clark | 77.40 | 72.50 | 74.95 |
Team Average | 64.00 | 59.53 | 61.76 |
The results show the rushing groups finished in the following order: (1) Buffalo Bills– 67.23 team average; (2) Miami Dolphins – 64.95 team average; (3) New England Patriots – 62.35 team average; and (4) New York Jets – 61.76 team average. To provide some context, in the NFL in 2022, in total rushing yards allowed, the Bills finished 4th, the Miami Dolphins 6th, the New England Patriots 7th, and the New York Jets 16th.
The strengths, weaknesses, and X-factor for each team’s rushing group are: