AFC East: Ranking the Receiving Groups in the Division

It’s not too early to look at positional groupings to help determine who will rule the AFC East in 2023 (see also the ranking of Pats' offensive line here).

One important area in which the Patriots are looking to improve in 2023 is receiving offense: in 2022, the Pats offense was 20th in the NFL in average passing yards per game and 26th in total yards per game. The only scoring machine belonged to the Pats' secondary, which easily led the NFL with five interceptions for touchdowns.

To evaluate the strength of each AFC East receiving group, I looked at team depth charts and draftees. I chose which players I believe will be in the top seven in receptions, regardless of whether that player is a wide receiver, slot receiver, tight end, or running back.

Some teams are led in receptions by a slot receiver like Hunter Renfrow; for others, it might be an X receiver like Julio Jones or a tight end like Travis Kelce.

Fans might quibble about which seven players I chose to represent each team, but I don’t think my choices for the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills are that controversial.

On the other hand, Pats fans will gnash their teeth at my choice of Demario Douglas over Tyquan Thornton and Kayshon Boutte.

For speed lovers, I’d point out that, per Pro Football Focus, for receivers with at least 40 targets, in the percentage of targets caught, Thornton finished 96th out of 97 NFL receivers. It’s nice to run by people, but I’m pretty sure you still have to catch the ball.

For Boutte backers, we’ll see if he can survive the preseason; for now, I’m going with my man Douglas.

The data in the table presented here are derived from Pro Football Focus and represent receiving grades for each player in 2022 and 2021.

The idea of using two years for this analysis is that one year, for many players, is not a sufficient sample. Players like Mike Gesicki, who moved from a team and offense that under-utilized his receiving talents in the Dolphins to one that is expected to fully use those talents in the Patriots, shouldn’t be excessively penalized for one down year.

If a player was in college or on a previous team in one or both years, I used the data from his NCAA time or previous team for that year or years.

Although the data is not a perfect representation of that team's value, the purpose here is to give an estimated value of each player to his team right now, so I needed to use that data.

Whether you're a fantasy player or a diehard fan, the important thing is to know, or at least estimate, what we can expect from each receiving group in the 2023 season based on what the data tell us.

*For Mostert, I used 2022 and 2020 data since he was injured in 2021.

**For Harty, I used 2021 and 2020 data, his last 2 full years of play.

The results show the receiving groups should be ranked, according to the average team receiving grades from 2021 through 2022, in the following order: (1) Miami Dolphins – 71.82 pts; (2) Buffalo Bills – 71.78 pts; (3) New England Patriots – 68.91 pts; and (4) New York Jets – 68.83 pts. Given the closeness of these results, it’s fair to say that Miami and Buffalo receiving groups are tied for best in the East, while New England and the Jets are tied for third.

Based on the data, we know the relative strengths of each team's receiving groups, but within those groups are strength, weakness, and X factors worth considering.

No. 1: Miami Dolphins

Strength: The best WR combination in the NFL is Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and everyone knows it. Opposing defenses are unlikely to shut down two receivers of this quality.

Weakness: Tight end. Just who is Durham Smythe and where did he come from?

X-Factor: With Devone Achane, the Dolphins have added another weapon to confound opposing defenses. With his 4.32 40-yard dash speed and 36 receptions in his last year with the Aggies, Achane will be a great third-down option for the Fins. Better buckle up, Marte Mapu.

No. 2: Buffalo Bills

Strength:  A balanced receiving group with a clear leader in Stefon Diggs, two excellent receiving tight ends, and a QB in Josh Allen who will get them the ball wherever they are on the field. The Bills show no signs of slowing down and will continue to be one of the top offenses in the NFL.

Weakness: Not too much wide receiver depth behind Diggs but Gabe Davis is competent.

X-Factor: Adding Dalton Kincaid to the receiving group will make Buffalo extremely hard to defend against. Kincaid is my early pick for AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, succeeding last year’s winner Garret Wilson, also from the AFC East.

No. 3: New England Patriots

Strength: The tight end duo of Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki should be the most formidable receiving tight end combination for the Pats since Gronk and Hernandez combined for 169 receptions in 2011.

We can expect Gesicki, who had 73 receptions in 2021, to regain his previous form under fiery Coach "OB," aka "The Teapot."

Weakness: No receiving depth at TE.  With so many quality tight ends available in the 2023 NFL draft, it is still a mystery why the Patriots didn’t draft at least a developmental TE.

For reinforcements, the Pats oddly chose to sign undrafted free agent Johnny Lumpkin, a road-grader likelier to switch to tackle than catch any significant number of passes.

X-Factor: Demario Douglas. The question is: Can he learn the offense, earn Mac Jones' trust, and get enough quality minutes to make a significant contribution?

It’s not an easy road, as anyone knows who watched "How Julian Edelman Evolved into an Elite Wide Receiver | A Football Life."

The Patriots, however, will need to find someone to juice the offense. Fortunately, Bill Belichick doesn’t care where you were drafted; he just wants to see what you can contribute on the field. That should give Douglas the opportunity the chance to show he can do some damage.

No. 4: New York Jets

Strength: Garrett Wilson finally has a QB who can get him the ball.

Look out!

Don't kid yourself, even at 39, Rodgers is still a great QB and the change of scenery may just rejuvenate him.

Weakness: How long will it take Rodgers and his receiving group to get on the same page? The addition of Lazard is helpful here but expect it to take at least until mid-season for the Jets' offense to get roiling.

X-Factor: A team with the 4th-ranked defense in the NFL in points allowed does not need an X-Factor on offense, which is fortunate for the Jets because they don’t really have one.