AFC East: Ranking the pass coverage groups—Pats vault to first

In a previous article, I ranked the receiving groups in the AFC East so now I’ll examine the other side of the coin—the pass coverage groups in the AFC East.

The Pats’ coverage unit was a strong ball-hawking group in 2022, finishing third in the NFL in total interceptions with 19 and leading the NFL in interceptions for touchdowns with five. In terms of passing yards allowed, the Pats were less effective, ranking 17th out of 32 teams, far behind the New York Jets which finished 3rd overall in the NFL.

To evaluate the strength of each AFC East coverage group, I looked at team depth charts and draftees and chose who I believe will be each team’s top seven pass defenders. Typically, I chose the top CBs and safeties and at least one linebacker who could be expected to be on the field during passing downs.

The data used in the table below are derived from Pro Football Focus player grades and represent coverage grades for each player in the years 2022 and 2021. If the player was in college in one or both of those years, I used the metrics from his NCAA time.

The idea with this table, like my previous analysis of the receiving groups, was to use the last two years of play to provide a more accurate sample. Like fans and fantasy players looking forward to the 2023 season, I’m more interested in projecting what these coverage groups are capable of in 2023 than in what they did in the past.

The results show the pass coverage groups finished in the following order: (1) New England Patriots – 72.97 team average; (2) New York Jets – 71.08 team average; (3) Buffalo Bills –70.73 team average; and (4) Miami Dolphins –70.19 team average.

The strengths, weaknesses, and X-factor for each team’s pass coverage group are:

No. 1: New England Patriots

Strength: Expect this unit to continue to be a strong ball-hawking group in 2023 and come away with a lot of turnovers. The addition of Christian Gonzalez and Marte Mapu may further allow this group to become the best pass coverage unit in the AFC East, provided the newcomers live up to expectations.

Weakness: Learning curve. The Pat will need to integrate highly-drafted rookies Gonzalez and Mapu into their defensive scheme. If Gonzalez or Mapu experience significant Year 1 struggles, the Pats passing defense could look very similar to 2022—excellent ball-hawking but still allowing too many yards through the air.

X-Factor: Marte Mapu doesn’t specifically have the build of a safety or of a linebacker but has excellent athletic traits. He can be a difference maker on defense if he can add enough muscle to avoid being pushed around without losing any speed. With his range and aggressive downhill tackling style, he has the tools to be an effective pass-coverage linebacker, QB spy, and run-stopper in the mode of the 6 ft., 230-lb. Matt Milano.

No. 2: New York Jets

Strength: Cornerbacks. Few teams have a shutdown corner like Sauce Gardner to pair with solid CB D.J. Reed Jr. and nickelback Michael Carter II. These CBs helped the Jets to tie for first in the NFL in allowing the least number of TDs (15) through the air in 2022.

Weakness: Safeties. Jordan Whitehead, Tony Adams, and new addition Chuck Clark form a pedestrian band of safeties with little upside and only two interceptions, both by Whitehead, in 2022.

X-Factor: Round 5 draft choice Zaire Barnes, a small fast backer; and Round 6 pick Jarrick Bernard-Converse, a safety/CB; both offer hybrid options and might be the Jets way of adopting a Matt Milano or a Kyle Dugger type. The question is whether either can get on the field in 2023.

No. 3: Buffalo Bills

Strength:  Safeties. Both Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer have been strong and consistent performers. Although Hyde missed most of the 2022 season due to injury, newly-signed Taylor Rapp is a capable replacement if either starter is unable to go.

Weakness: Tre’davious White’s pass coverage grade declined from 69 in 2021 to 56.7 in 2022 after coming back from an ACL injury in 2021. It remains to be seen if White can regain the form that had PFF refer to him prior to the 2021 season as “one of the best playmaking cornerbacks in the league.”

X-Factor: Matt Milano has developed into an outstanding pass defender, with a pass coverage rating of 83.2 in 2022 to go along with a pass rushing grade of 80.3. He is a new breed of smaller, faster, do-everything LB who can stop the run and the pass, blitz or spy on the QB, and probably clean the stadium after the game like a Japanese fan at a World Cup match if called upon.

No. 4: Miami Dolphins

Strength: The off-season addition of Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey, via a trade with the L.A. Rams, and the drafting of Cam Smith gives the Fins a very strong group of CBs.

Weakness: While Xavien Howard is still a solid CB, he reportedly battled injuries in 2022 and saw his pass coverage rating fell from a strong 71.1 in 2021 to a mediocre 56 in 2022. What’s behind the slide? Percentage of completions when throwing against Howard rose from 57.1 percent in 2021 to 66.7 percent in 2022 . Get ready Cam.

X-Factor: How long before Cam Smith sees significant snaps in the secondary? Can he push Xavien Howard out of a starting role?