AFC East: Ranking the running game—the New England Patriots rush ahead
By Jon Galvin
Previously, I ranked the receiving and pass coverage groups in the AFC East and now I’ll examine the running game, which includes both blockers and rushers, for each team.
To estimate the strength of the running game for each AFC East team in 2023, I looked at team depth charts and draftees and chose who I believe will be each team’s top five offensive linemen, top tight end, and top two rushers. Typically, I decided the top RBs as the rushers, but for the Bills, I chose the QB as I expect Josh Allen to be more of a factor in the running game than Damien Harris or Latavius Murray.
The data used in the table below are derived from Pro Football Focus player grades for each player in the years 2022 and 2021. I used run-blocking grades for offensive linemen and tight ends and rushing grades for the running backs (or QB if that player was chosen). I used the data from his NCAA time if the player was in college in one or both years.
Like my previous analysis of the receiving and coverage groups, the idea in this table was to use the last two years of play to provide a more accurate sample. Like fans and fantasy players looking forward to the 2023 season, I’m more interested in projecting what these coverage groups are capable of in 2023 than they did in the past.
Team | Player Name | 2021 Grade | 2022 Grade | Two-year Avg. Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New England | Trent Brown | 76.10 | 78.20 | 77.14 |
New England | Cole Strange | 43.80 | 86.90 | 67.60 |
New England | David Andrews | 76.90 | 80.10 | 78.50 |
New England | Mike Onwenu | 73.10 | 89.40 | 81.25 |
New England | Riley Reiff | 59.10 | 70.00 | 64.55 |
New England | Hunter Henry | 48.30 | 60.10 | 54.20 |
New England | Rhamondre Stevenson | 84.30 | 81.40 | 82.85 |
New England | Pierre Strong | 83.80 | 90.80 | 87.30 |
Team Average | 68.74 | 79.61 | 74.18 | |
New York Jets | Duane Brown | 44.40 | 69.60 | 57.00 |
New York Jets | Laken Tomlinson | 46.90 | 75.30 | 61.10 |
New York Jets | Joe Tippmann | 78.70 | 85.10 | 81.90 |
New York Jets | Alijah Vera-Tucker | 76.50 | 72.50 | 74.50 |
New York Jets | Mekhi Becton | 78.70 | 73.90 | 76.30 |
New York Jets | Tyler Conklin | 51.10 | 54.70 | 52.90 |
New York Jets | Breece Hall | 76.40 | 87.00 | 81.70 |
New York Jets | Israel Abanikanda | 90.60 | 87.20 | 88.90 |
Team Average | 68.35 | 77.75 | 73.05 | |
Buffalo Bills | Dion Dawkins | 60.90 | 69.20 | 65.05 |
Buffalo Bills | O'Cyrus Torrence | 89.90 | 89.40 | 89.65 |
Buffalo Bills | Mitch Morse | 56.00 | 58.80 | 57.40 |
Buffalo Bills | Connor McGovern | 43.10 | 65.30 | 54.20 |
Buffalo Bills | Spencer Brown | 56.20 | 71.60 | 63.90 |
Buffalo Bills | Dawson Knox | 65.90 | 56.50 | 61.20 |
Buffalo Bills | James Cook | 76.80 | 83.20 | 80.00 |
Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen | 92.80 | 93.60 | 93.20 |
Team Average | 68.14 | 76.38 | 72.26 | |
Miami Dolphins | Terron Amstead | 68.90 | 64.10 | 66.50 |
Miami Dolphins | Isaiah Wynn | 63.20 | 76.50 | 69.85 |
Miami Dolphins | Liam Echenberg | 42.50 | 57.90 | 50.20 |
Miami Dolphins | Robert Hunt | 74.50 | 65.60 | 70.05 |
Miami Dolphins | Connor Williams | 85.60 | 76.90 | 81.25 |
Miami Dolphins | Durham Smythe | 64.20 | 50.70 | 57.45 |
Miami Dolphins | Raheem Mostert | 80.70 | 58.90 | 69.80 |
Miami Dolphins | Devon Achane | 89.80 | 91.00 | 90.40 |
Team Average | 68.88 | 74.27 | 71.58 |
The results show the rushing groups finished in the following order:
(1) New England Patriots – 74.18 team average; (2) New York Jets – 73.05 team average; (3) Buffalo Bills – 72.26 team average; and (4) Miami Dolphins – 71.58 team average. To provide some context, in the NFL in 2022, the Bills finished 9th in total rushing yards, the New England Patriots 23rd in total rushing yards, and the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins tied for 25th in total rushing yards.
Although the results tell us the overall strength of each team's run-blocking units and rushers, they don’t necessarily tell us which team will have the most rushing yards in 2023. It’s important to consider other factors, such as the influence of a successful passing game on the running attack. Buffalo’s successful passing attack, 8th in total passing yards in the NFL, undoubtedly helped its rushing attack as well. Teams cannot load up to stop your running game if they fear the pass.
Just as the Bills benefited from its strong passing attack and the inherent difficulties in containing Josh Allen, the rushing attacks of the Patriots and Jets in 2022 were also likely hurt by their mediocre passing games. However, suppose the Patriots, under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, and the Jets, with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, can substantially improve their passing attacks in 2023. In that case, their overall rushing success should improve as well.
The strengths, weaknesses, and X-factor for each team’s rushing group are: