AFC East: Ranking the QBs — Bills on top; Pats best back-ups
By Jon Galvin
Previously, on offense, I ranked the running game and the receiving groups in the AFC East and now I’ll examine the performance of the QBs in the passing game for each team.
To estimate the strength of the QBs for each AFC East team in 2023, I looked at team depth charts and draftees and chose who I believe will be each team’s starting QB and two additional back-up QBs. Given the importance of the starting QB, I ranked the starters and back-ups separately for each team.
The data used in the table below are derived from Pro Football Focus passing grades for each quarterback in the years 2022 and 2021. If the player was in college in one or both of those years, I used the data from his NCAA time.
The idea in these tables, like my previous analyses, was to use the last two years of play to provide a more accurate sample. Like fans and fantasy players looking forward to the 2023 season, I’m more interested in projecting what these coverage groups are capable of in 2023 than in what they did in the past.
Starting QBs
Team Name | Player Name | Passing Grade 2022 | Passing Grade 2021 | Two-Year Avg. Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen | 85.80 | 81.90 | 83.85 |
New York Jets | Aaron Rodgers | 75.90 | 87.00 | 81.45 |
Miami Dolphins | Tua Tagovailoa | 81.40 | 67.30 | 74.35 |
New England Patriots | Mac Jones | 68.70 | 78.50 | 73.60 |
Back-up QBs
Team Name | Player Name | Passing Grade 2022 | Passing Grade 2021 | Two-Year Avg. Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New England Patriots | Bailey Zappe | 74.00 | 87.40 | 80.70 |
New England Patriots | Malik Cunningham | 62.30 | 82.70 | 72.50 |
Team Average | 68.15 | 85.05 | 76.60 | |
Miami Dolphins | Mike White | 59.60 | 51.40 | 55.50 |
Miami Dolphins | Skylar Thompson | 59.10 | 78.90 | 69.00 |
Team Average | 59.35 | 65.15 | 62.25 | |
Buffalo Bills | Kyle Allen | 29.10 | 65.70 | 47.40 |
Buffalo Bills | Matt Barkley | 59.10 | 49.40 | 54.25 |
Team Average | 44.10 | 57.55 | 50.83 | |
New York Jets | Zach Wilson | 43.30 | 54.80 | 49.05 |
New York Jets | Tim Boyle | 35.40 | 52.20 | 43.80 |
Team Average | 39.35 | 53.50 | 46.43 |
The results show the QBs finished in the following order:
Starting QB -- (1) Buffalo Bills/Josh Allen – 83.85 average; (2) New York Jets/Aaron Rodgers – 81.45 team average; (3) Miami Dolphins/Tua Tagovailoa – 74.35 average; and (4) New England Patriots/Mac Jones – 73.60 average. To provide some context, in the NFL in 2022, in total passing yards, the Miami Dolphins finished 4th; the Bills 9th; the New York Jets 14th; and the New England Patriots 21st.
Back-up QBs – (1) New England Patriots -- 76.60 team average (2) Miami Dolphins -- 62.25 team average; (3) Buffalo Bills -- 50.83 team average; and (4) New York Jets -- 46.43 team average. New England obviously benefits here from the inclusion of three years of NCAA experience in this sample. Still, although Buffalo has the best starting QB, the depth and versatility of New England’s QB room will likely be a factor during the 2023 season. Bailey Zappe could be the best back-up QB in the AFC East and may take over the starting reins if Mac Jones falters.
The strengths, weaknesses, and X-factor for each team’s QB room are: