Drake Maye’s Super Bowl fate could hinge on one coverage scheme

Sean McDermott’s recycled game plan vs. Patriots might already be in Seattle's bag.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Drake Maye popping up on the New England Patriots’ injury report one week from Super Bowl LX was definitely concerning. But for fans worried about their young quarterback’s dip in performance over the past month, those limited practices were actually reassuring.

Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reported shortly after the AFC Championship Game that Maye was banged up prior to falling awkwardly on his throwing shoulder in the win over the Broncos. That helps explain why his franchise-record 72 percent completion percentage from the regular season has dropped to 55.8 percent in the playoffs.

The other obvious factors? The Patriots faced three of the NFL’s top-five defenses over that stretch in the Chargers, Texans and Broncos. They also dealt with weather conditions that favored low-scoring, defensive struggles — including a legitimate blizzard during the second half in Denver.

Patriots reporter Greg Bedard of Boston Sports Journal isn’t buying any of those excuses for Maye, though, including his right shoulder injury. According to Bedard, Maye’s performance on film has been more concerning than any of the extenuating factors surrounding the Patriots’ offense, and there’s one clear coverage scheme teams have been adopting that, entering Super Bowl LX, has given Maye fits.

More concerning for Patriots fans entering Sunday’s showdown with Seattle? Maye’s kryptonite might already be in the Seahawks’ bag.

Cover 6 might be the key to stopping Drake Maye in Super Bowl LX

During his regular Tuesday afternoon spot with Felger and Massarotti on 98.5 The Sports Hub this week, Bedard referenced an article by NFL analyst Warren Sharp that, for the Xs and Os diehards out there, was extremely interesting.

Sharp broke down how Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott stymied Maye and the Patriots’ passing game in Week 15 — limiting them to 155 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception through the air — by utilizing Cover 6 on 50 percent of their defensive snaps.

Cover 6, essentially, is the Vic Fangio defense, known in the NFL as quarter-quarter-half coverage. It’s a hybrid zone look with two deep safeties, with a “box” zone on one half of the field (Cover 2), and a “triangle” zone on the other (quarters).

Without causing a complete popsicle headache here, it’s an easily disguised zone defense designed to take away deep verticals and force the quarterback to diagnose on the fly.

According to Bedard, the Bills had only used Cover 6 on 12 percent of their defensive snaps prior to Week 15. Other defensive coordinators obviously noticed a clear uptick in usage, and given the success, Patriots opponents have been deploying that same strategy against Maye ever since.

The Seahawks? They already use Cover 6 as the third-highest rate in the NFL, per Bedard.

“This is when you start seeing Drake Maye get the pitter-patter with his feet, hold the ball a little bit longer. His stats are way down; he’s among the worst in the league against Cover 6. It’s one of his few flaws. So you combine all that — I’m worried about Drake Maye, until he shows it to me in the postseason.”

The good news for Patriots fans? Josh McDaniels has two weeks to prepare his young quarterback for Seattle’s tough defense, and they should be able to scheme up some voids against the Cover 6.

With the safeties playing at varying depths, there should be opportunities to attack the middle of the field —  a strength of receivers Mack Hollins and Stefon Diggs. Bunch formations with late motion, and double moves, could catch Seattle's defensive backs over-pursing. The flats could also be a great source of easy completions, as the Seahawks will be much more concerned with Maye’s elite deep ball than his check-downs.

The best way to shred the Cover 6, though, might be to run right at it. The Bills definitely took away Maye’s passing efficiency in that Week 15 game, limiting him to his lowest passer rating of the regular season. What they didn’t do is stop the run — the Patriots rushed for 246 yards and scored 31 points against the Bills that day, and Maye had 43 yards and two touchdowns on the ground himself on just four carries.

The Seahawks obviously have a better defense than Buffalo, and they're going to make it extremely tough on the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They’re a big favorite in this game for a reason. 

But the chess match has already kicked-off behind the scenes, and it’s going to be fun to see which side gains the ultimate edge on the field.

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