Top Prop Bets for Week 16: New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 16: #1

Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase over 5.5 receptions (-135) – DraftKings Sportsbook

This is sadly becoming a go-to play for me, and I highlighted that last week. I sat on the sideline for the Jefferson breakout because I wanted to see how we’d match up with an elite receiver. I subsequently capitalized on reception props for Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins the two following weeks. Tripling down last week with Davante Adams didn’t go as well, with the Patriots doing a nice job containing him.

He still grabbed four balls, but the return of Raiders tight end Darren Waller shifted some of the targets inside. Waller saw three receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown, while fellow tight end Foster Moreau brought in another two catches for 20 yards. Mack Hollins was also mildly productive on eight targets, turning in four catches for 40 yards and a touchdown.

I’m going to quadruple down (is that a thing? now it is) on the logic of this play yet again. For the aforementioned wagers, the number has been 6.5 receptions. For Ja’Marr Chase, the line is set at 5.5. I can’t pass that up. As we’ve discussed at length, Bill Belichick’s defenses aim to take away the opposing offense’s top option. The trouble with the Bengals is opposite of Chase is Tee Higgins. A WR1 anywhere else, Higgins is enjoying another terrific season. He has 65 receptions for 894 yards and six touchdowns on the season.

I don’t believe Chase will put up a monster outing like he did in Weeks 6 and 7, when he tallied seven catches for 132 and eight catches for 130, respectively, with two touchdowns in each game. I think the Patriots defense has a good shot of holding Chase under 100 yards. But Joe Burrow knows how to get the ball in his hands, if only in the short game. Bubble screens, quick screens, jet sweeps, Chase is going to see receptions.

He’ll line up against the duo of Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones most often and while they’ve done nicely this season, they’re not a match for an elite wideout like Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has only two games this season with fewer than six receptions. I expect seven or eight grabs for 90 yards in this one, and the Patriots would need to consider that a win.