Top Prop Bets for Week 14 MNF: New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals
Let’s get the bad news out of the way. Outside of one surprising touchdown reception by rookie Marcus Jones, the Patriots flat-out stunk in Week 13. The Buffalo Bills focused their offensive efforts on running the ball and chewing clock. Absolutely dominating time of possession, the Bills were never in any danger of losing this game.
With their limited offensive opportunities, the Patriots didn’t do much to help their own case. Mac Jones went another game without throwing an interception but couldn’t get any of his receiving options going. Rhamondre Stevenson only carried the ball ten times, disrupting a rhythm the Patriots’ offense enjoys when Stevenson is churning out yards in bunches.
With the game script completely different than I had expected, our betting didn’t go much better. I went out on a limb and gave eight picks last week, the largest number to date. Coming off a 3-0 week, I was hungry to capitalize on the positive momentum. Our only picks that hit were Stefon Diggs grabbing seven receptions (over 6.5) and Josh Allen with eight carries (over 7.5). Frankly, we got lucky to even hit the latter, needing three Allen kneel-downs (yes, they count) as time expired.
Oh well, the worst is behind us, yea? Unfortunately not. This Patriots team is hurt. Reliable wideout Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out, as well as tackle Isaiah Wynn and cornerback Jalen Mills. Damien Harris is doubtful, and tackles Trent Brown and Yodny Cajuste are questionable.
The good news? Well, the Patriots got a lot of help last week. The Jets, Titans, Dolphins, and Chargers all lost in Week 13, while the Raiders lost already in Week 14. As much as they haven’t played like they deserve to be, the Patriots are still firmly in the playoff hunt, one game behind the New York Jets. And the even better news? The Arizona Cardinals are beatable.
Let’s take a look at my top player props for this crucial Week 14 showdown between the Patriots and Cardinals.
Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 14: #4
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson over 4.5 receptions (-155) – DraftKings Sportsbook
With Damien Harris doubtful to play, the offense will again run through second-year breakout back Rhamondre Stevenson. While Stevenson has seen his carries trend downward in the last two weeks, he remains a relevant receiving option week in and week out. In the last three games, he has hauled in 21 receptions, including six last week against Buffalo. In his last six games, he has gone under five receptions only once.
On top of Harris being doubtful to play, the absence of Jakobi Meyers cannot be understated. Meyers averages 6.7 targets per game this season, while Stevenson averages 5.6. With 67 targets each, they are nearly 30 ahead of their next closest teammate (Hunter Henry with 39). Mac relies on Meyers and Stevenson heavily in the passing game. With Meyers out, at least a few of those targets will go to Stevenson.
The Arizona Cardinals also struggle against backs that are active in the receiving game. Last week against the Chargers, Austin Ekeler brought in 11 passes. The week before, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey brought in seven. At other points this season, the Cardinals have given up five receptions to Dalvin Cook, seven to Alvin Kamara, and nine to McCaffrey when he was with Carolina.
I could see nine or ten targets for Stevenson, with him bringing in six or seven. Take this one confidently. The only reason this is not my top play is the odds of -155.