Week 1: Patriots-Cardinals Preview and Analysis

It’s finally here. The 2016 NFL regular season finally begins and what better way to start the season with a Sunday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals.

Bill Belichick vs. Bruce Arians.

Chandler Jones vs. His former team.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Carson Palmer… Definitely the matchup we all wanted.

Thanks to the aftermath of Deflategate, Patriots starting QB Tom Brady will be forced to miss the first 4 games of the season. Insert Garoppolo.

Patriots players and staff are high on Garoppolo, who has steadily made improvements since being drafted. The football world got their first look at Garoppolo starting on offense during the preseason, and there were ups and downs.

Garoppolo has showed progression from last season, as his reads were a bit quicker, however, at times it still wasn’t quick enough. He would be locked into a player and will stare them down for too long. One positive thing about Garoppolo is his ability to extend plays if need be, which may come in handy during his four game tryout. Patriots fans have been spoiled by the poise, command, and intelligence that Brady has consistently demonstrated for more than a decade and now will be watching Garoppolo try to lead the team to victory.

The Cardinals are in Win-Now mode. They are stacked offensively and defensively. In fact, their defense got two huge offseason acquisitions in Jones and CB Marcus Cooper. The defense will also get another boost as DB Tyrann Mathieu will be ready to go during Week 1. The Cardinals have also improved every year since Arians was hired.

2013: 10-6 (Did Not Qualify)

2014: 11-5 (Lost in Wild Card Round)

2015: 13-3 (Lost in NFC Championship)

2016: ???

This could also be a Super Bowl preview. Many have predicted the Cardinals to go all the way to the Super Bowl – and possibly win. They are very balanced on both offense and defense, and could  possibly be the best team in the NFC hands down.

New England Patriots 2016 Regular Season Prediciton

Matchup to Watch:

Patriots OL vs Cardinals DL

This is the weakest unit on the Patriots team, which also happens to arguably be their most important. The Cardinals front seven have studs all along it. The Patriots line, although improving, still has work to do. Keeping the ball out of Garoppolo’s hands is what will best suit this team, which means establishing a ground game. The Cardinals have thrived on winning the turnover battle (second in the league last season with 33 turnovers), so New England’s offense will need to be very careful with the ball.

James White Will Get Chance to Shine

It won’t be easy to run against this team (ranked 6th last season in rushing defense), but they must try. If Garoppolo is dropping back on every snap, they will lose 100%.

Side Note: Although Chandler Jones still respects his former team, expect him to be hungry and want Bill Belichick to know he made a mistake on not keeping and signing him.

X-Factors:

Gronkowski & Bennett

If the Patriots want a chance to win with Garoppolo starting in his first game, they will need Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett to have strong games.

New England can’t expect to pass on every down, however, if they can have a balanced attack of ground and air, they may succeed.

It’s a well-known fact that the Belichick & OC Josh McDaniels want to bring back a Two-Tight End offense. With two versatile players, it could help mask when they want to pass or run, and also set up play action.

Gronkowski and Bennett will also help open things up on the field, and having WR Julian Edelman as a security blanket is going to help Garoppolo move the chains.

Who NE must watch for:

DB Tyrann Mathieu

The dynamic DB suffered an ACL injury last December and unfortunately could not help his team in the playoffs. Matheiu was in conversation for defensive layer of the year before he went down.

He has rehabbed during the offseason and is set to make his return for Week 1.

100% or not, the Patriots must account for Mathieu. His play making abilities and versatility to line up with WRs and TEs make him a great chess match piece for the Cardinals.

McDaniels will definitely need a good gameplan that will help Garoppolo either avoid him or atleast throw in his direction sparingly.

WR Josh Brown

The majority of the Patriots attention in the secondary will be on WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, but 3rd year wide-out Josh Brown is dangerous as well. The Tight Ends will be a threat, but not one to really worry about.

He’s a more than capable receiver, and is a big-play threat. There are many ways Belichick and DC Matt Patricia could approach this:

Eric Rowe -> Michael Floyd

Logan Ryan -> Larry Fitzgerald 

Malcolm Butler -> John Brown

OR

Logan Ryan -> Michael Floyd

Malcolm Butler -> Larry Fitzgerald

Patrick Chung -> John Brown

These are just projections, but depending on how the Patriots decide to use newly acquired Eric Rowe, it can change their game-plan for the better

Last Matchup Recap:

20-18 Cardinals

After beating the Tennessee Titans the previous week, the Patriots returned to Foxboro for their first home game of the season to face the Cardinals who were led by QB Kevin Kolb and coached by Ken Whisenhunt.

Unfortunately, it didn’t end well. Arizona held New England’s offense in check for most of the game, but they were able to make a late surge in the second half of the game. The Patriots were able to drive down field, after RB Ryan Williams fumbled the ball with 1:10 left remaining, and get in FG range. However, to everyone’s surprise, K Stephen Gostkowski missed the 42-yard FG and the Cardinals escaped with the win.

Prediction:

If the Patriots are able to keep Garoppolo up straight and get the ball out of his hands as much as possible, they may be able to put themselves in a good position.

However, this is Garoppolo’s first start and it likely won’t go as planned. He still has a lot of room for improvement, and a lot to learn. He certainly will as the weeks go by.

But not this week.