The New England Patriots have a lot to gain in the 2025 NFL Draft. Mike Vrabel has rebuilt his defense to a large extent with astute upgrades at defensive tackle, edge, and cornerback in free agency. He still may need to add another defensive tackle and edge, but much of the work is done.
That start to the offseason already puts it miles ahead of the unproductive 2024 offseason, when the season was essentially sunk before a ball was even snapped. But defense is only half the job (along with getting a kicker). There’s still plenty of work to do on offense.
Vrabel inherited a lackluster offense with a top young quarterback, a solid tight end room, and decent running backs—and that’s it. None of the offensive skill players can be termed playmakers. He signed one in wide receiver Stefon Diggs (if he’s healthy). He also added three veteran free-agent offensive linemen but still needs to add left tackles and more pieces up front to have any real shot at winning. Let’s explore two worst-case scenarios where Vrabel could miss the mark in the draft and sink the entire 2025 season.
Mike Vrabel could trade down too far on draft night
Analysts are always happy to suggest trading down to collect more picks, as though that alone is a cure-all for a team’s deficiencies. It’s not. Sometimes, a strategic trade down makes sense. In 2025, one example would be moving down a pick or two from No. 4 and gaining an additional second-round pick. That would still assure you one of the top six positional players in the draft—that’s a sound move.
The six players are: wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, edge rusher Abdul Carter, left tackle Will Campbell, and defensive tackle Mason Graham. All are the best players at their respective positions in the draft and directly address the Patriots’ biggest needs. Two others, running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Tyler Warren, play at slightly lesser-need positions but have elite, game-breaking talent. All six are A+ picks.
Where Vrabel can go wrong is if he trades down and misses out on this group. The Patriots need really good players. No draft pick is a sure thing, but these six non-quarterbacks are as close as it gets. They’re all consensus top-7 selections and would immediately upgrade their spots on the roster. If Vrabel goes outside this group, he’s playing with fire.
If the Patriots ignore consensus, they could be in big trouble
Reaching in the draft means selecting players well above where the consensus ranks them. In 2022, there were two glaring examples that ultimately contributed to Bill Belichick losing his job as head coach and GM. The Patriots ignored consensus and made back-to-back disastrous reaches.
In the first round, they took guard Cole Strange out of Chattanooga (a position that rarely makes sense to draft that high). It was a massive reach and was literally laughed at on national TV by the Rams’ front office. Strange was a third-round value at best. The result? He’s been a bust.
In the second round, they reached again—this time for Baylor wide receiver Tyquan Thornton, who flashed speed at the combine but was also viewed as a third- or fourth-round prospect. Like Strange, he couldn’t hack it in the NFL and is already off the team.
For the 2025 Patriots, the lessons are clear:
- They must land one of the top six positional players—each of whom would significantly improve the roster.
- They must avoid reaching above consensus unless it’s deep in the draft, say in Rounds 6 or 7.
If Vrabel follows those two rules, he’ll have a chance to deliver a solid, maybe even great, draft. He’s on the spot. He needs a strong class to plug the roster holes and keep the team competitive in 2025. A great draft gives him a shot. But if he gambles on quantity over quality and takes unwarranted risks, the Patriots will feel the pain.