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Top analyst is already stirring up controversy about Patriots draft class

If they're right, Day 3 of this draft could be another 2024-like flop
Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; New England Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The New England Patriots entered the 2026 offseason with positions to improve, including the offensive line, edge, and tight end. Free agency didn't add much, but they conducted Days 1 and 2 of the draft nicely.

They locked in on key players, traded up for two of them, and drafted all three at those important positions of need. Yet, overall, analyst Greg Bedard saw the 2026 draft as more of an Eliot Wolf than a Mike Vrabel one, and that's not a great optic at all.

While they hit all three top positions of need, drafting tight end Eli Raridon in the third round was somewhat of a reach. They not only had tackle/guard Gennings Dunker available but also arguably a better pass-catching tight end in Justin Joly of N.C. State there as well.

Yet the pursuit of Raridon led to a late draft that was far more like Wolf's poor 2024 draft (except for Drake Maye) than Vrabel's overall great 2025 one.

Pats Pulpit's Bernd Buchmasser nicely spelled out where and by how much the Patriots deviated from the "consensus" of NFL observers on the players they picked. It paints a poor picture of drafting the best player available at positions of need, and can lead to draft flops.

N'Keal Harry, Tyquan Thornton, and many others under Belichick (the worst of which was drafting guard Cole Strange, who couldn't play at all in 2022's first round), and Wolf in 2024 demonstrated that clearly.

Miie Vrabel wasn't in Foxborough for Day 3 of the 2026 draft

Non-insiders really don't know exactly how the 2026 Day 3 draft picks were made, yet a few were clear headscratchers. But the fact that as astute an analyst as Greg Bedard has labeled it as more of an Eliot Wolf draft is telling.

Absent Wolf's drafting Drake Maye (likely at the insistence, at least obliquely, of owner Robert Kraft), the only solely Wolf draft in 2024 was an unmitigated disaster. After Maye, only one or maybe two players even remain on the roster.

None contributed anything when they did play. It was the archetypal draft disaster, worthy of being taught in any NFL football general managers' course in the nation, on how NOT to conduct a draft.

As Buchmasser's article points out, Raridon was a reach of about 31 spots from the consensus. But Cornerback Caron Prunty took the prize. Not only was Prunty not at a position of great need, but he deviated from the consensus norm by a whopping 341 spots. Taken in the fifth round, according to Buchmasser, most thought he wasn't even draft-worthy.

Linebacker Namdi Obiazor was a negative 85 points, and quarterback Behren Morton, a seventh-round pick (why draft a quarterback at all when they'll be available in undrafted free agency), was a negative differential of 59 from the consensus.

Two other Day 3 picks were around the consensus, and one, sixth-round pick offensive tackle Dametrious Crownover, actually scored a plus 72, indicating he was actually a value pick.

Bedard's comments, along with Buchmasser's research, highlight that Mike Vrabel's participation in the draft probably has more bearing than any other factor. Vrabel was there for the mostly successful Days 1 and 2, but not on Day 3 when things went off the rails.

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