The New England Patriots aced the first two rounds of the 2026 draft. They drafted their top two needs, a highly-rated offensive tackle, Caleb Lomu, and pass rusher Gabe Jacas, in the first and second rounds.
They also hit another top need, tight end, in the third round.
There, however, they deviated from consensus drafting and reached for tight end Eli Raridon, who was not on Pro Football Focus's top 10 list of tight ends in the draft. One tight end who was available was on that list at No. 6: Justin Joly of N.C. State. Should he have been the pick?
Raridon may surprise, and the hope is that he will. Patriot Nation will be rooting for him to do a wonderful Rob Gronkowski imitation and prove any naysayers completely wrong. Yet reaching in the draft is never a good idea, as was proven time and again under Bill Belichick.
Perhaps his worst reach ever was literally laughed at by the LA Rams. It was 2022's first-round pick, guard Cole Strange, who was a complete bust. It contributed to Belichick's dismissal.
Joly ultimately was chosen in the fifth round by the Broncos. He may turn out to be far less of an NFL tight end than Raridon, and the hope here is that Raridon will dispel any buyer's regret promptly. Yet, the philosophy behind the pick is what is troubling, and the odds favor those who are the consensus better players.
Why Justin Joly may have been the better tight end fit
Draft analytics are always a crap shoot, yet if you rely on consensus to help determine who you might pick at a position of need, you'll likely be better off. One of the best analytical outfits in the business, Pro Football Focus, did not rate Raridon in their top 10 tight ends in the 2026 draft.
That, by itself, is not a sure determinant of success, but it helps. They did have Joly there and listed him as their sixth best.
"Joly is a natural receiving tight end with strong hands, a high football IQ and a competitive edge. While he lacks standout athletic traits, he offers enough to project as a contributor on offense and special teams."
Tight end Joly caught 49 passes for 489 yards. Raridon had 32 catches for 482 yards. Yet, Joly had seven catches for touchdowns while Raridon didn't see the end zone. That of itself is not a sure indicator of success, but being a red zone target or getting there is a surefire way to help win games.
Joly is a smaller player at 6"3.5" and 241 pounds, while Raridon is massive at 6'6" and 245 pounds and will likely be the better blocker. He's also a far bigger target. Yet, on the blocking angle, the Patriots signed former Miami tight end Julian Hill in free agency. Hill is almost exclusively a blocker. He fills that need. The need for a blocking tight end was not great.
What Joly would have provided is a better target for Drake Maye's passes as a move tight end, as NFL.com notes,
"Undersized pass-catcher with the ability to expand the route tree and challenge man coverage around the field. Joly still needs to polish his route-running but he has the footwork and athletic traits to uncover.
He doesn’t catch with much hand extension and fights throws on occasion but he makes up for it with impressive body control/catch toughness. His effort and strain as a blocker need to improve. Joly has the ability to contribute as a moveable “F” tight end."
With Julian Hill in the fold, the Patriots needed as good a pass-catching tight end as they could draft. While Raridon may have greater upside, drafting for potential is risky business. Justin Joly was a sounder, more of a consensus choice, all things considered.
Yet, now that Raridon is in the fold, the hope is that he'll show that he was the better choice after all. That's all that matters.
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