Two things can be true: The 13-3 New England Patriots are legitimate Super Bowl contenders despite a 2025 schedule that, as the New York Jets showed this past Sunday, has been extremely favorable, to put it lightly.
They’re also a well-coached and talented football team that’s not without some glaring flaws.
Entering the second half of the season, the Patriots’ red zone offense had become a legitimate concern for fans and analysts alike. Quarterback Drake Maye has had an unbelievable knack for hitting big scoring plays beyond the 20-yard line, but in the red area, where the team’s inconsistent rushing attack has been a problem at times this year, the Patriots’ efficiency drops considerably.
True to form for a Mike Vrabel-coached team, New England has noticeably improved in that area. Over the last three weeks, the Patriots have been scoring touchdowns in the red zone at a 73 percent clip, per Team Rankings, ranking seventh overall in football over that span.
If the Patriots can keep that trend going, they’ll be a tough out for any opponent in the upcoming AFC playoffs. Frankly, the offense shouldn’t be a major concern for fans going forward, with Maye dealing and now back on top of the MVP odds.
If there's a growing issue for Vrabel's group, it's on defense. The Patriots have been operating without some critical pieces on that side of the ball, like defensive tackle Milton Williams and linebacker Robert Spillane, and they've been especially poor in the one key area where playoff games are lost and won.
This one defensive weakness could ruin everything for the Patriots
The Patriots played their worst defensive half of the season in Week 15 against Buffalo, surrendering five consecutive touchdown drives on their home field. To Vrabel’s credit, despite injuries mounting, his unit has put together solid performances in back-to-back weeks, forcing three total takeaways in bounce-back wins over the Ravens and Jets.
During his playing days, Vrabel was part of some of Bill Belichick’s patented bend-but-don’t-break defenses. Those Patriots teams were known for forcing opposing QBs to methodically work their way down the field, before smothering every blade of grass inside the 20-yard line and near the end zone.
Vrabel’s Patriots, as Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report pointed out this week, have had a brutal time trying to replicate that style.
Even after Sunday’s 42-10 laugher against the Jets, the Patriots rank dead-last in football in red zone defense, allowing scores on 70.3 percent of their opponents’ trips entering Week 18. They allowed seven red-zone scores on nine total trips against the Bills and Ravens alone, per Gagnon.
Again, the Patriots have the luxury of a tight locker room and a smart coaching staff. They should get guys like Spillane, Williams, Harold Landry Jr., and Khyiris Tonga back when the games start counting for real in January.
But is it a legitimate concern that the Patriots rank dead last in red zone defense, given the schedule and quarterbacks they’ve faced so far this season? Of course it is, and it’s definitely something worth watching as New England opens its upcoming playoff push.