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The Patriots may not be as close to a big trade as fans think

It might officially be time to temper our expectations.
New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel
New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The majority of the New England Patriots’ offseason has been dominated by trade speculation, with star Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown front and center. Patriots fans will believe it when they see it, though. In his 14-plus months as head coach, Mike Vrabel has been selling pieces far more often than he’s been buying them.

Vrabel's lone splash move came during 2025 free agency, when the Patriots outbid the Carolina Panthers for defensive tackle Milton Williams. His four-year contract that topped $100 million was the richest in franchise history. (Yes, that includes Tom Brady’s 20-year tenure with the franchise.)

Aside from that one major signing, the Patriots have targeted short-term veteran rentals (like Stefon Diggs and K’Lavon Chaisson) while looking to stockpile future Day 3 draft capital. Under Vrabel, the team has already shipped out safety Kyle Dugger, pass rusher Keion White, linebacker Marte Mapu, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, and center Garrett Bradbury, mostly for an assortment of sixth- and seventh-round picks in return.

New England will thus enter next week’s NFL Draft with 11 total selections, but just three inside the top 100 overall. The Patriots hold eight picks on Day 3, making them prime candidates to make early-round trades with an eye on improving their draft position at Nos. 31, 63, and 95. 

They also hold nine selections in 2027, and those future picks may hold more value than in years past. The 2027 rookie class is projected to be elite, especially at the quarterback and offensive skill positions.

That could actually complicate matters for the Patriots, based on the latest reporting from NFL insider Jordan Schultz of FOX Sports. He believes the 2027 talent pool could significantly impact how teams like the Patriots approach trades during this year’s draft.

“There are several teams in the top 10 interested in trading down, but the issue they’ve run into, and believe will persist, is a lack of interest from teams in moving high 2027 picks, per sources,” Schultz wrote. “Things will intensify next week, but that element could make trades more difficult than usual.”

There are growing signs a major Patriots trade may not be coming

If the Eagles do in fact trade Brown this offseason — and they appear poised to do so after acquiring young Packers wideout Dontayvion Wicks this past week — the Patriots still make the most sense as a destination. Brown could benefit from a change of scenery, and the team he grew up rooting for just so happens to have his former head coach, an ascending young quarterback, and a glaring need at wide receiver. 

It still feels a lot further from a slam-dunk move for New England than it should right now.

The Patriots haven’t made many expensive moves like this under Vrabel’s regime, with the recent decision to cut ties with Diggs the latest example. They would also almost certainly be parting with 2027 or 2028 draft capital in a hypothetical trade for Brown, as due to significant salary cap ramifications, the Eagles are highly unlikely to move their top wideout until after June 1.

To Schultz’s point, the Patriots may not be chomping at the bit to send premium 2027 draft picks to Philly in exchange for a receiver entering his age-29 season. The same could be said of the Patriots potentially moving up on either of the first two days of this year's draft.

Would Eagles GM Howie Roseman accept New England’s first-round pick in 2028 as the centerpiece of a trade for Brown? That's definitely possible, but it would be a major departure from the norm for Vrabel. He never traded a first-round pick during his six-year run as head coach of the Tennessee Titans. Instead, he stuck to the more conservative approach of moving on from aging veterans early and replacing them in the draft.

Brown to the Patriots isn’t dead by any means, but the latest Schultz report certainly doesn’t make it feel more likely. If anything, it lends credence to fears that the big move fans have been waiting for isn’t going to happen.

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