There aren’t many absolutes in the NFL, especially when it comes to the draft. This is the time of year when the line between smokescreen and reality often gets blurred, and fans should be careful not to latch on to one singular idea or plan.
For fans of the New England Patriots, it’s been impossible not to latch onto the idea of Mike Vrabel bringing star wide receiver A.J. Brown to Foxboro.
While actual trade talks, per Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf, with the Philadelphia Eagles have been quiet since the start of the new league year, fans aren’t buying that for a second. Those paying attention are well aware of the Philadelphia Eagles’ salary cap situation, never mind their recent moves to add both Hollywood Brown and Dontayvion Wicks to the depth chart.
This feels like a clear not-if-but-when situation with Brown and the Eagles, and considering the cap ramifications of a trade during the draft ($43 million-plus in 2026 dead money, per Over the Cap) the expectation is that Brown will either be moved after June 1, when a chunk of those unavoidable cap charges could be pushed into 2027, or remain in Philadelphia.
Curveballs happen all the time during the NFL Draft, however, and NESN writer Aaliyan Mohammed recently revealed a potential surprise suitor for Brown that Patriots fans might be sleeping on.
The Miami Dolphins have a new head coach in Jeff Hafley, a new starting quarterback in Malik Willis, and a major need at wide receiver after moving on from both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle this offseason. They also hold a pair of 2026 first-round picks, and Mohammed believes they could look to leverage that capital in an effort to steal Brown away from a division rival.
“The Eagles are clearly going to wait for the best offer they can get for Brown, and that could come on draft day,” Mohammed wrote. “After the draft, teams may want to wait until June 1 to go after Brown, as his cap implications will change, and the asking price could drop.
“However, the Dolphins could get aggressive and pull the trigger on him by sending the Eagles the Broncos first round pick this year, essentially swapping Waddle for Brown.”
Why Dolphins’ interest could blow up Patriots’ A.J. Brown plan
Brown is widely expected to land in New England sometime after June, likely with draft capital in 2027 or 2028 heading Philly’s way. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Patriots wheel-and-deal during next week’s draft in an attempt to acquire future draft picks to help ease that burden.
As for speculation around Brown getting moved during Day 1 of the draft for the second time in his career? That feels highly unlikely, as the transaction would cost the Eagles’ $20 million in immediate 2026 cap space, per OTC, just to facilitate a deal.
Eagles GM Howie Roseman could obviously make it work, as his team currently has about $34 million in cap space to sign draft picks and additional free agents. Brown’s expensive pre-June 1 cap hit represents a clear bargaining chip, though. The Eagles will need enough value coming back in return to justify the extra 2026 cap commitment, and that value likely equates to a 2026 first-round pick, with a Day 2 or Day 3 selection tossed in as a sweetener.
While the Patriots hold 11 total selections in the 2026 draft, they may find it hard to justify that kind of a price. They only hold three picks inside the top 100, and parting with No. 31 overall could leave them waiting until the end of the second round to make their first selection.
The Dolphins, who now hold Nos. 11, 30, and 43 overall in this draft after trading Waddell to the Denver Broncos, feel much more likely to meet that hefty asking price. They’ve had a brutal offseason to date, including carrying a $55.4 million dead-cap hit for Tua Tagovailoa this year (and another $43.8 million in 2027) while he suits up for the Atlanta Falcons. To Mohammed’s point, they desperately need some type of win-now splash move to keep the fans engaged, and a blockbuster trade for Brown this year would certainly qualify.
None of this should affect the Patriots' pursuit of Brown. Their plan should be to hold firm, call Philly’s bluff, and wait to hammer out a deal in June, when the Eagles would actually save $7 million in 2026 cap space, according to OTC, and the asking price should fall into a more reasonable range.
If the Dolphins want to swoop in and pay a premium for Brown entering his age-29 season, the Patriots should happily step out of their way.
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