The New England Patriots set up their surprise run to Super Bowl LX by going 5-1 in the division and 8-0 in road games during the regular season. Even with a better roster on paper this year, one of those feats will be next to impossible to repeat.
The other almost has to be matched for the Patriots to be playing meaningful games in January and February again in 2026. That's where the puzzling Miami Dolphins come in.
It’s hardly a secret that the Patriots will face one of the NFL’s toughest schedules coming off last year’s AFC East title. They’ll be tested right off the bat, too, with four consecutive games against 2025 playoff qualifiers, including a Super Bowl rematch at Seattle in Week 1.
New England's six divisional matchups against the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins could end up making or breaking its season. That breaking point could be any record below 5-1 in the AFC East.
New England has won 18 of its last 20 matchups against the Jets, and there’s no reason for that to change this year after New York traded away its two best players in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. The Patriots tend to have much tougher matchups against the Dolphins, but Miami has done almost everything in its power to change that in one offseason.
The Dolphins aggressively hit the reset button by releasing Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, and trading Jaylen Waddle. They did sign former Packers backup quarterback Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million deal in free agency, but he’ll be surrounded by the worst skill position group in football.
Moe Moton of Bleacher Report listed Willis among his top 2026 bust candidates, highlighting a disastrous Miami offseason that could end up playing right into the Patriots’ hands.
“Malik Willis isn't set up to flourish on a rebuilding squad with arguably the league's worst pass-catching group,” Moton wrote. “The Miami Dolphins are heading into training camp with Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington and Tutu Atwell as their top three wideouts. None of the aforementioned receivers has caught more than 49 passes in a season.”
The Patriots’ chances of a repeat run start with the lowly Jets and Dolphins
The Dolphins actually landed Willis at a solid number, as only $45 million of his contract is guaranteed and there’s a potential out after the 2027 season, per Spotrac, for a $13.3 million dead-cap charge.
They’re certainly not setting their new quarterback up for success, though, and it will be on Mike Vrabel and the Patriots to make them pay for it.
The only thing close to a reprieve in New England’s 2026 schedule arrives in Weeks 5 and 6, with back-to-back home games against the Raiders and Jets. Then, after a tough Thursday Night Football matchup against the Bears in Chicago, the Patriots will travel to Miami to play the Dolphins in Week 9.
All four of those games are winnable, with the luxury of catching the Bears on a short week in October. The Patriots will need all the momentum they can get entering the second half of a schedule that includes matchups with the Packers (home), Lions (Munich), Chargers (road), Bills (home), Vikings (home), Chiefs (road), and Broncos (home).
The only matchups not mentioned there are the late-season ones against the Jets and Dolphins. Those simply have to be wins against a pair of franchises who already appear to be in clear tank-a-thon mode ahead of what could be the most talent-rich draft classes in recent memory.
New England would love to help its two bitter rivals usher in that next era by handing them a pair of losses. The Dolphins’ very Jets-like offseason has certainly kicked that door wide open entering 2026.
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