Projecting Demario Douglas’ stats for the Patriots in 2024 

Tragic playwright and author Oscar Wilde is believed to have first coined the cliche “When you assume you make an ass out of u and me.” Unfortunately, when you project a player's production over 17 games, you have to assume quite a lot. 

First, you must assume that, unlike last season, Douglas will stay healthy all season and that the 2024 Patriots’ offense won’t be obsessed with screen passes like the 2023 version was. Any self-respecting optimist will also assume he won’t go through another season without scoring a touchdown. 

"Pop," as his friends call him, is the Patriots’ most intriguing receiver heading into the 2024 season. With his combination of speed and agility, Douglas has the highest ceiling, but given his concussion issues in 2023, his floor is low, too. 

Projecting Demario Douglas’ stats for the Patriots in 2024 

Back to the future

In the games he started in 2023, Douglas caught 66% of his targets, averaging 9.1 yards per reception. In extrapolating the data, at that rate, the rookie would have caught 76 passes and ended the season with 865 receiving yards. 

That would have ranked him third in his receiving class, ahead of Tank Dell and Zay Flowers!

What has changed?

There’s a very different feel to the Patriots’ roster this season and the coaching staff. There is a new receivers coach, a new offensive line coach, a new offensive coach, and a senior offensive assistant, too. With five receivers realistically competing with Douglas for playing time and the new offensive coordinator at pains to explain how he wants to establish the run 2024 is going to be different.

Patriots fans know all too well that wanting to establish the run and being able to establish the run are very different things. Bill O’Brien's plan also revolved around the run game, but he called pass plays 55% of the time because the team was playing from behind so often. 

Assuming Van Pelt isn’t facing the same kind of adversity, O’Brien was every week (and he realizes Douglas is more effective outside than in the middle), Douglas is poised for a successful 2024. He should split his time with Javon Baker both in the slot and as the Z receiver who goes in motion before the snap.

In his final year in college, Douglas caught 79 passes for 993 yards with six touchdown passes. After four years at Liberty, he averaged 12.8 yards per reception, 7.1 yards per punt return, and 21.6 yards per kick return. 

That versatility could work against him as a pro. If he returns both punts and kicks, it could cost him a few snaps on the offensive side of the ball, but Douglas is too explosive to be left on the sideline. The Patriots have another eight players who can return kicks, too.

Alex Van Pelt loves a diminutive receiver

Last season, Van Pelt had a receiver similar to Douglas in Cleveland: Elijah Moore. Moore is an inch and a half taller than Douglas but just a single pound heavier. Like Douglas, Moore suffered a serious head injury last season. 

The Browns' quarterback woes in 2023 made the Patriots’ issues look like a walk in the park; Cleveland had to start five different guys! Despite that, Moore played 903 snaps, ending the season with 59 catches for 640 yards and 11 rushing yards to boot. 

Great expectations

Even if the Patriots receiving corps looks like a movable feast of similar talents, Douglas should be a mainstay in the passing game in 2024. If he can avoid major health issues, Douglas should play around 580 snaps.

If they use him properly and they can have some stability at the quarterback position Douglas should have 74 catches for 814 yards with 50 rushing yards. He might even score a few touchdowns. 

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