Predicting Drake Maye's 2024 season's stats

How good will Drake Maye be as a starter this season?
New England Patriots OTA Offseason Workout
New England Patriots OTA Offseason Workout / Maddie Meyer/GettyImages

The New England Patriots are on their way to summer camp next month with some key unanswered questions on the squad. One is who’ll start at quarterback. Others include who’ll be the No. One wide
receiver (if there is one) who’ll play left tackle and who’ll start at free safety.

While all positions are important and left tackle is a potential season-breaker, the most critical position on an NFL team is always the quarterback. The 2023 season demonstrated just how important it was for the Patriots. They had no defined starter and predictably finished last in the AFC East.

Opinions abound about who should get the nod at QB: veteran Jacoby Brissett signed to a monstrous (for a journeyman backup) one-year contract for $8M, or rookie third overall pick in the draft, Drake Maye. Despite former Patriots great Rodney Harrison's thoughts, it should be Maye, hands-down.

Maye should get all the first-team practice reps (he's trending in that direction) and plenty of pre-season work in preparation for real games in September. Anything else is a waste of time and talent. Let's predict the rookie’s stats if he does start.

Predicting Drake Maye 2024 stats

It’s now apparent to a wide audience that Drake Maye has the goods to be an exceptional NFL quarterback. While he's young and relatively inexperienced (and, like Tom Brady, had only two full seasons of college work), Maye was drafted third overall in the draft for a reason. He’s a terrific prospect.

Maye does everything required of an NFL QB well. Assuming the Pats don’t drop the ball and he starts from the get-go, the simple prediction is this. He’ll have a solid first season and surprise all the doubters. Nothing is off the table.

First, let’s talk about the completion percentage. This statistic is predicated on a whole host of factors like the capability of your offensive line, how good your receivers are, and how the group coalesces; Maye will readily adapt to the circumstances and overcome.

The prediction on completions is a solid 63%. It’s not earth-shattering, but it’s probably the
best he can do with the players he has alongside. That changes if the team gets a bona fide left tackle, though chances of that happening at this stage are slim.

The Pats can't ask him to do too much, though he may have to. His top priorities are to make the throws he should and protect the ball. No one has ever had a better pocket presence than TB12. That includes Dan Marino. But Maye is also a player who can escape the rush and tote the rock.

His pocket-escapability and running prowess provide a dynamic not seen in Foxborough since Steve Grogan's time. Defensive coordinators have to game-plan for that. Anything that keeps defenses guessing is good. Expect Maye to run for 400 yards or so.

Predicting Drake Maye’s critical TD to interception ratio

A key QB indicator is the TD-to-interception ratio. If It's high, you’ll be competitive. If not, you’re sunk. At UNC, Maye had 63 TDs to 16 INTs. That’s 3.93/1. Tom Brady, in 2001, had a ratio of 1.5/1. In his three years at Foxborough, Mac Jones had a 1.7/1 ratio. Maye will better those stats. The prediction here is a solid 25 TDs to 11 INTs, a ratio of 2.27/1, with 3400 yards passing, an average of 200 yards per game.

The Patriots will have a decent running game if Rhamondre Stevenson stays healthy. He’s a top back. Unfortunately, there’s not much depth behind him. Not beefing it up was a serious oversight this offseason when you knew you’d likely have a rookie quarterback at the helm. It won't help Maye.

Let’s not have overly rose-colored glasses. The Patriots have no left tackle, a thin running back group, a largely untested wide receiver corps, and an average tight end room. Don’t expect miracles. The Pats will be walking a tightrope to win games. It will take Drake Maye’s myriad talents and the Pats' top defense to perform magnificently and have a winning season. And you flat-out can’t make many mistakes.

These predictions made for rookie quarterback Drake Maye are a tall order if he's the 2024 starting quarterback. Maye was drafted third overall, meaning he should be able to play right away. If he plays up to these standards, and the defense does what it can, the Patriots can win. As they say, that's why they play the games.

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