PFF's 2024 season simulation isn’t all bad news for Patriots fans 

In the content vacuum that is the NFL off-season, media outlets have to make up their own news (and fun) to keep the weeks moving. That comes in a series of different forms, some lean into the 2024 rookie hype, others try to pick out what’s going to change This time out and others, well, others just guess stuff under the auspices of “modeling.” 

“Modelling” involves combining as much data and as many different analytics as possible and producing detailed outcomes, like win totals. However, not all data types are given the same importance and weight as others.

The PFF season simulation takes into account the team points spread ratings, record, and schedule strength to project the number of wins each team will end the regular season with. However, PFF calculates the schedule strength based on the 2023 win percentages. 

This means they rank the Patriots’ strength of schedule eighth in the league. According to the Sharp Football strength of schedule, only the Steelers will face tougher opponents than the Patriots in 2024! 

Sharp Football bases the strength of schedule calculations on each team’s projected wins in 2024, which makes more sense considering the high personnel turnover every offseason.  

There's a silver lining for the Patriots' probable losing season ahead

Using their formula, PFF's simulation of the entire 2024 NFL season suggests it will be another stressful season for fans in New England. However, their simulation also concludes that no team will win more than 11 games during the season, which seems low. 

The Ravens led the entire league last season with 13 wins, and in 2022, the Chiefs finished the regular season with a 14-3 record. Back in 2021, two teams, the Packers and Buccaneers, both won 13 games. 

So, taking these “simulations” with a pinch of salt is best. But one thing that should interest Patriots fans is that PFF believes the Bills will only win 3.3 (so four) more games than the Patriots this year. 

Sean McDermott’s Rams won seven more games than the Patriots last year. The projection also calculates the Bills will win the division with a 10-7 record. Only the Texans won an AFC division with ten wins last year. The 9-8 Buccaneers were the only team in the league to manage fewer than ten wins and still top their division. 

The simulation predicts the Dolphins and Jets will both win nine games. But the good news for Patriots fans is that the modeling suggests the Patriots will win at least six games, 6.49 to be precise. Bookmakers have set the Patriots’ over/under at 4.5, so there’s definitely reason for optimism amongst fans in New England. 

Winning two more games is something to look forward to; finishing four games away from the division champions is another. The downside is that the Patriots' 6.49 wins are the lowest simulated total in the league! 

If the Patriots are playing the 31st toughest slate of games in 2024, then the PFF simulation appears overly generous to Jerod Mayo's guys. 

But, hey, who doesn’t want the first pick in the 2025 draft? Maybe they’ll actually draft a left tackle this time? 

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