Patriots projected to be AFC’s worst team in opening 2024 win total odds

Oddsmakers are expecting a tough season in New England to open the Jerod Mayo era. 

Jan 17, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo addresses media at a press conference.
Jan 17, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo addresses media at a press conference. / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
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For the first time this century, the New England Patriots will be without Bill Belichick on the sidelines as a new era has kicked off at Gillette Stadium. 

New head coach Jerod Mayo took over for Belichick this offseason and faces a complete rebuild of a franchise that went 12-22 combined over the last two seasons and haven’t won a playoff game since winning a sixth Lombardi Trophy in 2018. 

As expected, New England is a distant long shot in the AFC and in a division with playoff contenders. The Patriots were used to being on the top of the odds board this time of the year. That’s not the case as the rebuild has New England projected to be in the basement of the AFC by season’s end.

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Patriots projected to be AFC’s worst team in opening 2024 win total odds

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, New England has the lowest 2024 win total in the AFC at 4.5. It’s tied with the Carolina Panthers for the lowest win total in the NFL. 

What doesn’t help is New England’s division as the AFC East features three teams with playoff aspirations in 2024. The Buffalo Bills (-215), Miami Dolphins (-175) and New York Jets (-135) are all favored to reach the postseason, according to DraftKings. New England is +800 to make the playoffs for the first time since 2021. 

In the AFC East, per DraftKings, New England is the biggest divisional long shot in the NFL at +2500, which carries an implied probability of 3.85%. 

Who will be New England’s quarterback in 2024? 

The Mac Jones era in New England is over after three seasons. Jones, the 15th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Jones was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars in March.

New England reunited with former quarterback Jacoby Brissett in March, but it’s expected the Patriots could take their franchise quarterback with the No. 3 overall pick in this month’s draft, or trade out of the pick. 

Right now, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is the favorite to be selected with the No. 3 overall pick (+100), though it's unclear if the Patriots will be the team selecting in that slot in a few weeks.


Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.