History warns Patriots against drafting a quarterback with third overall pick

New York Jets v New England Patriots
New York Jets v New England Patriots / Adam Glanzman/GettyImages

Once it was clear the Patriots would hold a top-5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the consensus was they had to select their new franchise quarterback since who they had was not the team's future.

But since then, there has been more of a debate surrounding the idea, with some believing taking one of the best wide receivers of the class is a better decision due to the near certainty they will be productive players for a long time.

Because the draft is hit or miss with any chosen player, especially a quarterback, the logic of staying safe by taking a receiver is understandable and applicable to the Patriots.

Selecting Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers would significantly boost their offense, and their success is more guaranteed than that of a quarterback needing to deal with the transition from college to the pros.

But at the same time, there is a fair argument to be made that most of the best quarterbacks over the last several years have been first-round picks. Since New England will have a wider selection with the third overall pick, then they can't pass on a quarterback, right?

It depends on who you ask but the history of quarterbacks taken third overall could play a part in the Patriots decision making come draft night.

History warns Patriots against drafting a quarterback with third overall pick

The Patriots are in unfamiliar territory this year because they haven't held a draft pick this high in over 30 years. Their success has allowed them to pick much further down the ladder, so the assumption has been that they have to take advantage of their positioning now, especially since no team wants a season bad enough to have a high draft pick again.

That could force them to take a quarterback this year, even more so when considering next year's class is not highly regarded. And if that's the case, the track record of quarterbacks taken third overall is a bit lackluster, to say the least.




Sam Darnold



Blake Bortles



Matt Ryan



Vince Young



Joey Harrington



Aklil Smith



Steve McNair



Heath Shuler



Obviously, not all of those chosen with the third pick have been busts, but more so than they have been successful.

Could this ultimately deter Jerod Mayo and Eliot Wolf to stay away from taking a signal caller with their first rounder?

Should it be a factor they consider in making a decision?

If they are a group that's into analytics, they might. But it's generally believed you have to take the risk in drafting a quarterback when your team is in need. So maybe it'd be best to forget the track record at the third pick and just take a quarterback.

It feels like a situation that will have the Patriots criticized if they do or if they don't, so there won't be any winning for them from the fans or the media. Hopefully, whoever they pick is the right guy, and they turn out to be a great player for the team for a long time and don't have to deal with a Sam Darnold situation in Foxboro.

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