With a big-time comeback win over the Ravens on Sunday Night Football, the Patriots officially locked up their first playoff berth since the 2021 season. It's a feat not a single analyst predicted before the year began, as New England was coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons and only projected to possibly double their wins in 2025.
But as we've seen, they have defied the odds and go into their rematch with the Jets this Sunday with a tied league-best 12-3 record, and are still actively competing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the Broncos, as well as the AFC East with the Bills.
Neither will likely be determined until Week 18, so what their postseason future looks like is far from clear. However, there are plenty of projections out there that can give us a clue as to where they will land in the conference.
Based on those latest predictions, they're likely to hold the No. 2 seed, and their opponents are coming into focus, too, and it's not exactly the matchup that the Patriots would be hoping for.
The Patriots are in for a tough first playoff battle based on their current projected seeding
Depending on who you ask, the Patriots need (or don't) the first-round bye that comes with being the No. 1 seed. They can still get the coveted positioning if they win out and the Broncos don't, but their fate won't be known until the final game is played.
So, as of now, it's the No. 2 seed, which means they'll play during Wild Card Weekend and host the current 10-5 Texans, who have an impressively dominant defense at Gillette Stadium.
It unfortunately also points to the possibility that, even as the No. 1 seed, they could still face Houston because of just how good they have been over the past two months.
They are on a 7-game win streak heading into their Week 17 matchup against the Chargers, with a defense that has recorded 16 sacks in the last five games, the most noteworthy being eight on Josh Allen last month.
That's an absolute disaster waiting to happen for Drake Maye, with his only saving grace being the return of left tackle Will Campbell from injured reserve. He will be eligible to be activated after this Sunday's game against the Jets, but it wouldn't be surprising if they wait to bring him back until the playoffs.
In that case, the offense would be in much better hands to fight off Houston's scary defensive line, but that confidence is a bit lost without Campbell in the lineup, even if the backup linemen have done a standup job in his (and others') absence.
They'll certainly need all the help they can get come playoff time, but even more so if they're inevitably going to be facing one of the best defenses the AFC has to offer. It would be a huge first test for a team that wasn't expected to make it this far, and could become further proof of just how good they've turned out to be this year.