The New England Patriots got back into the win column in Week 16, taking down the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football and continuing to put themselves in a strong position for the number one seed in the AFC. Even better news for the Patriots is that the Broncos lost their game, giving both teams the same record with two games remaining in the regular season.
If the playoffs started right now, the Patriots would not hold the top seed but it could easily be theirs. The Broncos might play the suddenly atrocious Chiefs on Christmas this week but they end the season against the 11-4 Chargers, who are still fighting for a chance to win the AFC West. The Patriots, meanwhile, close out their 2025 campaign against the Jets and the Dolphins. That's definitely a more favorable schedule than what Denver has to deal with.
Here's what the AFC playoff picture looks like after Sunday's games:
- Denver Broncos (12-3, 1st in AFC West)
- New England Patriots (12-3, 1st in AFC East)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4, 1st in AFC South)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6, 1st in AFC North)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, 2nd in AFC West)
- Buffalo Bills (11-4, 2nd in AFC East)
- Houston Texans (10-5, 2nd in AFC South)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6*, 3rd in AFC South)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-8, 2nd in AFC North)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-9, 3rd in AFC West) - Eliminated
- Miami Dolphins (6-9, 3rd in AFC East) - Eliminated
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-10, 3rd in AFC North) - Eliminated
- New York Jets (3-12, 4th in AFC East) - Eliminated
- Tennessee Titans (3-12, 4th in AFC South) - Eliminated
- Cleveland Browns (3-12, 4th in AFC North) - Eliminated
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-13, 4th in AFC West) - Eliminated
Patriots win over Ravens quietly puts AFC top seed back within reach
The Colts don't play until Monday night but they're out of the playoff picture, as of this writing and won't be in even with a win against the 49ers. The Broncos and Patriots are the only two teams to have clinched a playoff spot in the AFC but in all likelihood, the seven teams in the postseason picture right now will still be there when the playoffs begin in a few weeks unless the Ravens pry the AFC North away from Pittsburgh.
So, if the playoffs kicked off right now, the Patriots would be playing on wild card weekend and would host the Texans. That's not a great matchup for New England given how dominant that Texans D is. The other matchups would be the Jaguars hosting the Bills and the Steelers hosting the Chargers. Denver would get the bye and would host the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round.
The Patriots have to win out to stave off the Bills in the AFC East race and also to keep their hopes at the top seed alive. If they can beat the Jets and Dolphins to close out the 2025 season, there's a solid chance New England will indeed be the number one seed in the AFC playoffs and who the heck would have predicted that at the beginning of the year?