Patriots’ rest-of-season projection proves what the NFL already fears

NFL fans have collectively been thinking the same thing in recent weeks, with quarterback Drake Maye plastered all over morning talk shows, and the New England Patriots once again atop the AFC East standings, now a third of the way through the 2025 regular season.

"Wait… are the Patriots actually good again?”

Unfortunately for every non-Patriots fan out there, those fears are quickly becoming a harsh reality.

The Patriots are very much back, riding their ascending young quarterback and culture-setting head coach to three straight impressive wins — the last two on the road. New England currently sits at 4-2, and now officially owns the top spot in the division after Buffalo’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.

With some gettable games coming up on the schedule, the Patriots have suddenly become a legitimate threat to the Bills' five-year reign atop the AFC East. So let's have a little midseason fun and predict New England's remaining 12 games, starting with Mike Vrabel's anticipated return to Tennessee in Week 7.

Predicting the New England Patriots’ final 2025 record after 4-2 start

Week 7: at Tennessee Titans (1-5)  

Teams tend to get a natural bump from a midseason coaching change, but the Titans are down bad right now. This one's personal for Vrabel, and you know the Patriots will want to beat the worst team in football handily for their coach. It's hard to see New England dropping this one.

Patriots 27, Titans 13

(Projected record: 5-2)

Week 8: vs. Cleveland Browns (1-5) 

If the Patriots can beat the tanking Titans as expected, they’ll have navigated a tricky spot in their schedule with three consecutive road wins. They’ll play at home for the first time in 28 days against Cleveland — a team that’s averaging a league-low 13.6 points per game with a third-round rookie starting at quarterback. The Browns have some horses on defense to affect the game, but Maye and the Patriots should be too much.

Patriots 24, Browns 9

(Projected record: 6-2)

Week 9: vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-2)

This game feels a lot tougher than it did at the beginning of the season. Their laughable, 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers aside, the Falcons already have three strong wins on their resume over the Vikings, Commanders, and Bills. They’re also dead-even with the Patriots entering Week 7 in scoring defense, allowing an identical 20.0 points per game (tied for 7th in the NFL).

This one could end up being a physical, low-scoring affair that comes down to containing Bijan Robinson and Atlanta’s run game. Let’s still give the slight edge to New England, which will be home against a Falcons team that has a trip to Berlin looming the following week.

Patriots 21, Falcons 20

(Projected record: 7-2)

Week 10: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) 

This could end up being a matchup between the midseason frontrunners for regular season MVP — Maye vs. Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have been banged up at wide receiver and still continue to produce wins. It’s a veteran, battle-tested group that still has several holdovers from the 2020 Super Bowl championship team. This will be a major litmus test game for Vrabel’s Patriots, especially with Thursday Night Football against the Jets on deck.

Buccaneers 28, Patriots 24

(Projected record: 7-3)

Week 11: vs. New York Jets (0-6)

This will be a sneaky big spot for New England. The Jets are a bad football team, but they’ll have the advantage of getting the Patriots on a short week, just five days after a marquee road game in Tampa Bay; the Jets will have a matinee home game against the Browns in Week 10. This is another one the Patriots should win handily, but it likely won’t be pretty.

Patriots 19, Jets 10

(Projected record: 8-3)

Week 12: at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)

One of the Patriots' toughest games on schedule release day now feels much less daunting. The Bengals have quickly fallen out of contention following Joe Burrow's toe injury and have turned to the 40-year-old Joe Flacco via an in-season trade. New England will have the luxury of a mini bye week here. It's hard to see the Bengals and their leaky defense hanging in this game for long.

Patriots 34, Bengals 20

(Projected record: 9-3)

Week 13: vs. New York Giants (2-4)

This one will be fun. Monday Night Football. Gillette Stadium. Drake Maye vs. Jaxson Dart. What more could you ask for on Dec. 1?

The only stress point for Patriots fans is that this is the Giants — a team that’s been an enormous pain in the you-know-what regardless of their record and talent level. The Patriots are probably the better team, but Dart has given New York some juice, and the Giants’ pass rush is legit. New England will drop a game its favored to win at some point this year. This could be the one.

Giants 21, Patriots 18

(Projected record: 9-4)

Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills (4-2) 

Depending on how things shake out with Buffalo, this could be the game that decides the AFC East champion. New England will be coming off a Week 14 bye, while the Bills have a potential layup at home against the Bengals that week.

The Patriots kicked off their current three-game surge with a win over Josh Allen and the Bills in Buffalo in Week 5. It will mean so much more if New England can do it again in December, but it won't be easy. Expect the best version of Allen in this game.

Bills 30, Patriots 27

(Projected record: 9-5)

Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens (1-5)

This might be the toughest game remaining on the schedule to predict. The Ravens can’t stop anyone on defense right now, allowing a league-worst 32.3 points per game. They also have a wild-card in Lamar Jackson, who’s missed their last two games but will try to put the Superman cape on after Baltimore’s Week 7 bye and lead them back into contention.

M&T Bank Stadium is a difficult place to go and win a ball game, and the Ravens could be the more desperate team here. This is a tricky one, the week before Christmas.

Ravens 34, Patriots 31

(Projected record: 9-6)

Week 17: at New York Jets (0-6) 

While Baltimore’s end-of-season fate is still questionable entering Week 7, we all know where the Jets are heading. The Patriots will need a get-right game coming off their toughest stretch of the season, and a date with Justin Fields and the Jets is the perfect recipe.

Patriots 30, Jets 14

Projected record: 10-6

Week 18: vs. Miami Dolphins (1-5) 

At this point, you know what you're getting with Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins in January. This is a notoriously soft football team when it comes to playing in cold weather. Whether the Patriots are still vying for the AFC East title or looking to shore up their playoff position, getting the Dolphins in Week 18 is an advantage.

Miami will be more focused on their upcoming tropical vacations than playing a cold-weather game in Foxboro. This should be a speed bump en route to the AFC playoffs for the Patriots.

Final 2025 projected record: 11-6

Double-digit wins felt like a long shot entering the season — especially after New England’s Week 1 flop at home to the Las Vegas Raiders. Now six games in, 10-plus wins and a playoff berth should be the expectation. 

This is still a young group and an overall rebuilding program. There will be some hiccups along the way that nobody expects, despite the favorable schedule. But Maye’s rapid development, and Vrabel’s ability to create a culture the players clearly believe in, have this team way ahead of schedule and poised to give fans meaningful football down the stretch.