The Patriots finished a lowly 4-13 last season with a 1-5 in-division record, squarely last in the AFC East and the third worst in the conference. Just an offseason later, though, and the odds seem to be in the team's favor for working their way back up to the top.
The crew over at CBS Sports recently predicted every division winner in the league, and while the Patriots didn't hop the Bills, their +550 odds led the Dolphins and Jets.
Are the Patriots likely to win the division? No. Despite their massive improvement and easy schedule, the Bills are likely to retain the vice grip they've had on the East since Brady's departure. What I would expect, however, is a much more competitive effort from the Patriots, specifically against the Jets and Dolphins, who they went a combined 1-3 against last season.
Interestingly enough, Jacoby Brissett was the primary QB in three of the four matchups. In Maye's only game, the Patriots made an odd 15-point push in the fourth that sent Tua Tagovailoa back in the game, but in the end, the 31-0 start for Miami was far too much to overcome, and the Dolphins managed a comfortable 34-15 win.
The 2025 season is going to be far different for the Patriots in the AFC East
Nothing might have changed as far as the likely division winner, but the other three squads have changed significantly. The Patriots' metamorphosis has been discussed ad nauseam, but Miami and New York have each had transformations of their own.
The Dolphins shipped away tight end Jonnu Smith and star cornerback Jalen Ramsey for the return of Minkah Fitzpatrick, and also added PFF's No. 2-ranked guard, James Daniels, in free agency. Former Patriot Matt Judon was added, and nose tackle Kenneth Grant was selected No. 13 overall.
The defensive backfield took a massive hit overall: Rasul Douglas and another former Patriot, Jack Jones, were brought in as last-ditch efforts to help the cornerback room, but ESPN still predicts Storm Duck and 2025 fifth-round pick Jason Marshall to be starters.
The Jets, on the other hand, had more positivity in their offseason, but mystery remains. Superstars Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner were extended on massive deals, and Justin Fields was brought in to be the new starter at QB. Albeit unproven, he should offer a spark to the offense. No. 7 overall pick Armand Membou will start at right tackle, and Olu Fashanu will play the whole season on the left side.
Second-round tight end selection Mason Taylor offers an athletic threat down the middle. While these are exciting prospects for the Jets, there's no proof they'll perform, hence the hesitancy.
At this point, saying the Patriots are the second-best team in the division is far from egregious, and that's a testament to the work Mike Vrabel, Ryan Cowden, and Eliot Wolf have done this offseason. After a 2024 that was so gloomy in Foxborough, 2025 seems an awful lot brighter.