The New England Patriots' hyped offseason was dampened after a disappointing Week 1 performance against the Raiders, which ended in a 20-13 loss. The offense was anemic: Drake Maye was streaky, and the run game was nonexistent. Defensively, the unit was solid overall but allowed some key plays to alter the game. Things will need to change if they want to take down the Dolphins.
Miami has no shortage of weapons, despite their embarrassing 33-8 loss against the Colts. Tua Tagovailoa is a polarizing but generally accurate quarterback, De'Von Achane leads the backfield, and the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as receivers is among the best in the league. Even secondary contributors, like Ollie Gordon, Darren Waller, and Malik Washington, can contribute to an offense.
Defensively, their edge rushers are the team's strength. The group features Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Chop Robinson, and former Patriot Matt Judon. First-round pick Kenneth Grant features at defensive tackle.
All things considered, the beginning of the season was disappointing for the Floridians, and they'll look to bounce back against New England, who need to focus on not repeating last week's biggest mistakes and rewrite the script to beat a familiar foe.
Key things to watch for in the Patriots' first matchup against the Dolphins
Breaking the Dolphins curse?
The Patriots have historically handled the Bills and Jets, but the Dolphins have seemingly always given them trouble. In Brady's final season, the Patriots were knocked out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC after losing in the final week against Ryan Fitzpatrick's Dolphins.
The Patriots haven't beaten the Dolphins in their first matchup of the season since Cam Newton's sole season with the team in 2020. Since that matchup, the Patriots have gone 1-8 against their division foe, their sole win coming against Teddy Bridgewater. The great Bill Belichick notoriously did not win a game against Tua Tagovailoa.
Vrabel has the opportunity to lead the Patriots to their first win over Tua, which would be a massive burden to overcome after years of him stepping up against New England. The team stepping up and getting back to .500 on the season is a major storyline to follow.
Neutralizing the run
While the Dolphins have historically relied on the passing game to beat their opponents during the Mike McDaniels era, their run game has been very strong against the Patriots specifically. Last season, Jaylen Wright recorded a career high 86 yards from 13 carries against the Patriots. That one game accounted for 35% of his rushing yards for all of last season.
Defenses already have plenty on their plate when playing against the Dolphins' receivers, so the last thing they need is their running game to start clicking. Forcing the Dolphins to throw may not be such a bad idea: their top-producing pass catcher had just 40 yards last week against a defensive backfield not as talented as the one the Patriots have.
If the defensive line can keep the run contained, it will make the linebackers' and defensive backs' jobs in coverage much easier.
Pressure from the interior is a necessity
One thing is for certain when it comes to the Dolphins: they get the ball out fast. Edge rushers rarely have great games against Miami because, simply put, they throw the ball faster than any edge defender can get around the edge.
Pressure via the interior and blitzers will be key to slowing them down, as two of the three Colts sacks came via defensive backs. With Milton Williams and Christian Barmore as interior rushers, collapsing the pocket shouldn't be much of an issue, especially given the team's four sacks last week against the Raiders.
Natural pressure from the inside instead of blitzing would allow the Patriots to get Tua off platform and commit more players to stopping Hill and Waddle. Interior pressure fixes all.
No deep balls!
Geno Smith's success on deep balls was unprecedented last week. No other offense in the league had more than five 20+ yard completions last week: Smith had nine. In particular, a blown coverage that led to a Tre Tucker touchdown and a deep shot to Dont'e Thornton to seal the Raiders' win stuck out as particularly painful plays.
It goes without saying that this cannot happen with Hill and Waddle. Tackling must be elite when an opponent has players like them, and ideally, a defense should never let them get up to speed. Press coverage should be a given, and I'd expect safeties Jaylinn Hawkins, Craig Woodson, and Dell Pettus to rotate into a deeper role.
While he's questionable at the time of writing this, the imminent return of Christian Gonzalez and his speed will be a major boost. Corey Ballentine was elevated from the practice squad last week, and he may be again. His 9.37/10 relative athletic core (RAS) matches the levels seen by the Dolphins' offense. Limiting big plays will be huge if the Patriots are to win this game.
Third down improvements
Across the board, the third-down play calling against the Raiders was very poor. The Patriots finished 4/14 on third down for the day, or a 28.5% conversion rate. Extrapolate that over a season, and they would've been the worst third-down team in the league last year.
The team struggled to keep drives alive, with four three-and-outs. There's no doubt they need to rebound, and Miami gives them the chance to do so: the Colts had a 46.6% conversion rate last week.