The 2025 season was a spectacular one for the New England Patriots. The team finished 14-3, won the AFC East, and made the Super Bowl in Mike Vrabel's first season as the head coach. Vrabel won Coach of the Year, Josh McDaniels won the Assistant Coach of the Year, and Drake Maye came second in MVP voting. The organization has a tremendous base to build from.
As always, the league's best teams get hate. The Patriots were one of the league's best teams in '25, and they were no exception. Their weak strength of schedule was the biggest knock on them: the 0.391 figure was by far the easiest in the league.
Admittedly, their easy schedule played a role in their success, but given that they were a last-place team in 2024, they took advantage of their last-place schedule in the following season. If it really is so easy to flip a team from 4-13 to 14-3 in a season with an easy schedule, then why doesn't everyone do it?
The team will have a first-place schedule in 2026, meaning they'll face off against the seven other division winners from 2025. Additionally, they'll play the Packers, Lions, Vikings, Chargers, and Chiefs: five potential playoff teams who didn't win their division title.
Pessimism about the Patriots' 2026 season is understandable, especially when you consider the loss of leading receiver Stefon Diggs and several defensive standouts, including K'Lavon Chaisson (10.5 sacks in 20 games), Jack Gibbens (81 tackles), and Jaylinn Hawkins (4 interceptions).
The Patriots' offseason hasn't yet raised their floor enough
The Patriots' offseason was most heavily about replacement rather than improvement. Alijah Vera-Tucker replacing Garrett Bradbury was no doubt an exception, but for the most part, Vrabel and Co. opted to find younger or stylistically different replacements for their free agents.
The team allowed all six UFAs to walk, as well as Gibbens and Alex Austin.
The team signed Romeo Doubs to replace Stefon Diggs and inked Julian Hill as Austin Hooper departed. James Hudson replaces Vederian Lowe, while Dre'Mont Jones replaces Chaisson. K.J. Britt for Gibbens, Kindle Vildor was signed to replace Austin, and Kevin Byard takes over for Jaylinn Hawkins.
Vildor is more experienced than Austin, and Byard is an upgrade over Hawkins. It's hard to make a concrete argument, however, that Doubs, Hill, Hudson, Jones, or Britt are upgrades over their predecessors. Younger, yes, but better is a stretch.
Considering the additional departures of Khyiris Tonga, Anfernee Jennings, and Jahlani Tavai, the Patriots' defense lacks the depth it had last year. As mentioned, Vera-Tucker's addition is massive for the offensive line, but he missed all of 2025 with a torn tricep and has played in only 43/85 possible games since entering the league in 2021.
The schedule got harder, and the additions weren't enough to make up for that rise in difficulty.
The Patriots could be this season's 2025 Washington Commanders
The Commanders famously went from worst in the division in 2023 to the NFC Championship in 2024 after Jayden Daniels' OROY campaign. 2025 was a different story for the D.C. squad, however. After going 12-5 in 2024, the team went 5-12 last season, while Daniels played in only 7 games due to injury.
A similar fate would befall any team if their star quarterback were to go down with an injury, and it goes without saying that Daniels' injury played a major role in the Commanders' slip. Nonetheless, they were still only 2-5 in games Daniels played, averaging 18 points. In a recent article from The Athletic's Chad Graff, it was laid out how the Patriots' season could be similar to that of the 2025 Commanders.
Both teams have second-year head coaches who were fired from their previous teams despite having success during their tenures. Both quarterbacks were top-3 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft who drastically raised their team's floors with spectacular play. Both rely on a veteran tight end, and each added a marquee lineman before the season began (Laremy Tunsil and Vera-Tucker).
It's possible the Patriots haven't made enough additions to solidify themselves as a playoff team in 2026, but there are still holes in the argument. The Commanders' defense ranked 18th in PPG in 2024, then 27th in 2025. If the 4th-ranked 2025 Patriots' defense were to mirror that fall, they'd still be 13th in football.
The Commanders also lost their three top rushers from the 2024 season ahead of 2025: Daniels (injury, played 7 games), Brian Robinson Jr. (trade), and Austin Ekeler (injury, played 2 games).
While Jacory Croskey-Merritt (805 yards) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (500 yards) made valiant efforts, the Commanders' rushing offense averaged 15 fewer yards per game despite an uptick in run play percentage.
The most notable piece of this argument that struggles to hold its water is the loss of Daniels. As mentioned, the Commanders were struggling even when Daniels was starting, but to say the Commanders would have finished with a 5-12 record regardless of the quarterback is foolish.
Patriots fans will no doubt be hoping a Commanders-esque fall doesn't occur, but it isn't necessarily impossible. The Commanders won 7 fewer games in 2025 than in '24, and if the Patriots were to do so, they'd finish 7-10. If the schedule was as big a needle mover as some people thought it was, that isn't out of the question.
We'll get a better sense of what the final roster might look like after the April draft, but bringing in a fresh group of talent will be key if the Patriots are to avoid a fall similar to Washington's.