It's hard to remember the last time the AFC East was a legitimately competitive division from top to bottom, and perhaps it never really has been since the realignment. The Patriots were the big brothers for much of the last 25 years, with the Bills stepping up after Tom Brady left for the Bucs in 2020 and becoming the assumed winners since.
Of course, the Patriots made a comeback in 2025 and stole the division back after Buffalo reigned supreme for five years, and that could happen again this year. But so far, Josh Allen looks to be on an MVP trajectory, which means the division will likely go with him and the Bills.
The Patriots aren't too far behind, but unfortunately, the Jets are already looking like a problem, too.
Although they haven't been competitive since their last playoff appearance in 2010, when they reached the AFC Championship Game, they have undergone massive changes over the past year that already seem to be paying off as they start the season.
Could this become a problem for the Patriots, who hope not only to win the division again but also to make the playoffs? It's looking more likely than not.
The Jets could become a big problem for the Patriots' 2026 hopes
The Jets go into Week 3 with a 1-1 record and were seconds away from being undefeated had they not lost to the Packers in overtime this past Sunday. Geno Smith is making a major impact at quarterback, which is a surprise, and the additions the Jets made through the draft are also proving to be a threat.
They opened the year with a decisive win over the Titans, beating them 23-10 in a turnover-free game led by superstar running back Breece Hall and new tight end Kenyon Sadiq, whom many hoped the Patriots would have a chance to draft.
The offense had its fair share of players involved on the day, as quarterback Geno Smith has a star-filled receiving corps to make his job easier. And the defense wasn't too shabby, either.
They followed that performance with a near-win over the Packers, again led by the wide receivers and a solid performance from Smith, too. His veteran experience is something the Jets have been missing at quarterback over the last few years, and it's clear it's proving far more valuable at the start of the season.
Smith has been a problem for the Patriots over the years, handing them their first loss of the season in 2025 when the Raiders beat them at home, and doing the same when he played for the Seahawks in 2024.
So it's fair to assume he will be a problem for them again this year, especially since he now has a longer list of weapons to work with, as receivers like Adonai Mitchell and Omaro Cooper Jr. rise to the occasion behind Garrett Wilson.
That will be a problem for the defense, but the Patriots are fortunate to have a secondary led by Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis at cornerback, and Kevin Byard III at safety. So there's room for optimism about their chances of shutting down their best performers.
As for the offense, however, there might be more trouble there for New England.
The Patriots' offense could be in for a long day against the Jets' defense
Through the first two games, New York's defense has recorded 103 total tackles, 6 sacks, 6 passes defended,10 tackles for a loss, and 8 quarterback hits.
They have a defensive line led by rising players like Dane Belton, Jamien Sherwood, and rookie David Bailey, all of whom are already making a strong impact. And although it's fair to say they haven't faced a superstar offense yet, that doesn't change the fact that they're making plays and creating problems for quarterbacks, which is not what the Patriots will want to deal with.
That's especially true for a team they have wiped the floor with for the majority of the last 25 years, as they almost always sweep the Jets every season. Most fans mark it off as an automatic win on the calendar, no matter when the games are set, but that might not be the case this time around, and that's a scary thought.
We already know the Bills will be a tough team to beat, so, fortunately, the game in Buffalo is in two weeks rather than at the end of the season, and the Dolphins don't appear to have a competitive bone in their body right now.
So that leaves the Jets, who would normally not be a team to worry about, but a reinvigorated roster led by a head coach the team loves could be a recipe for disaster for the Patriots when they finally take them on in Week 6.
Time will tell, as we know things can change drastically between now and then. But there are plenty of reasons to keep the Jets on the radar right now, and maybe the Patriots should watch them a bit more closely this season to be better prepared.
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