For New England, a divisional-round matchup against the Texans begins and ends with restraint, not ambition, even with a second-year quarterback, Drake Maye, who has played himself into the MVP conversation.
Against arguably the premier defense in football, this week isn't a game where New England can afford to ask Maye to drop back 30-plus times and win it with volume -- that type of script plays directly into Houston's strengths and invites a long afternoon filled with pressure, negative plays, and third-and-longs.
The Patriots’ clearest path forward is far more grounded. Quite literally.
The best way to neutralize a fast, disciplined pass rush is to run directly at it, forcing defenders to play downhill, tackle consistently, and defend inside-out rather than pinning their ears back.
That approach also slows the Texans’ perimeter athletes and creates downstream benefits in the passing game, particularly by forcing linebackers into coverage against tight ends and stressing defensive backs in the run support phase.
The Patriots' backfield will be key to getting a win over the Texans
That formula showed up, quietly, in last week's wild card win over the Chargers. It wasn't pretty, a 16-3 scoreline reflected that, but it was effective, and you don't apologize for winning playoff games at the end of the day. Maye finished with 66 rushing yards, extending drives and punishing defenders when they turned their backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson carried the rock 10 times for 53 yards, doing the unglamorous work between the tackles. TreVeyon Henderson added just 27 yards, yet his speed and burst altered pursuit angles and forced the defense to respect the edge.
None of those numbers jump off the stat sheet, but collectively, they established balance and prevented the Chargers from dictating terms. That balance is even more critical against Houston.
If the Patriots can consistently find ways to live in second-and-five rather than third-and-nine, the playbook expands, and they'll force the Texans’ linebackers to flow laterally, make safeties step down into the box, and open windows off play-action.
Stevenson’s value lies in his physicality and vision, his ability to turn four-yard gains into manageable situations, while Henderson brings a different element, one built on acceleration, spacing, and the threat of explosive plays that can punish overaggressive fronts and missed tackles from defenders working from depth.
If HC Mike Vrabel's group can execute a good old-fashioned ground game, contrary to the times, it could very well see New England punch their ticket to an AFC title game.