The preseason predictions for the 2025 New England Patriots were all over the map, with some bullish on the team’s chances of achieving 10-plus wins, and others seeing 8-9 or 9-8 as the sweet spot.
No one had the Patriots reaching the double-digit mark before Thanksgiving, though.
The NFL’s biggest surprise team will enter Week 13 riding a nine-game winning streak. The Patriots haven’t lost since the Steelers game on Sept. 21, when they committed five turnovers and fell short by seven points.
Oh, and they’re also 6-0 on the road this season, which ranks first in the NFL.
Similar to the 2001 season, the Patriots have deep-playoff-run vibes entering this year’s stretch run. Injuries to key starters, like left tackle Will Campbell and defensive lineman Milton Williams, will be tough to overcome, but New England looks like a major threat not only to win the AFC East but to secure the conference’s No. 1 playoff seed
Predicting the New England Patriots’ final 2025 record after 10-2 start
Week 13: vs. New York Giants (2-8)
Patriots fans will never feel good about a game against the Giants, but this one feels a lot less daunting than it did a couple of months ago. While New York has the pass rushers to give the Patriots fits, especially with their injuries up front, the Giants have an interim head coach, Mike Kafka, and a rookie quarterback, Jaxson Dart, who just missed back-to-back starts due to a concussion.
New England gets this one at home, and just survived a wake-up call against Cincinnati. The Patriots should be able to push their win streak to 10.
Patriots 31, Giants 21
(Projected record: 11-2)
Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
The Patriots will get the best from Josh Allen and the Bills in this one. The big question? Is Buffalo’s best good enough to beat the Patriots this year?
The Bills don’t have enough weapons around Allen, and their defense is banged up and has come up small in key moments in 2025. This could be the game that ends Buffalo’s five-year reign atop the AFC East. Expect the Patriots to meet the challenge at home coming off their bye week.
Patriots 30, Bills 27
(Projected record: 12-2)
Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
This is easily the Patriots’ toughest spot remaining on the schedule. Following up an emotionally-charged game against the Bills inside Gillette Stadium with a trip to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens is a tall order.
The Ravens feel like a difficult matchup defensively. The Patriots have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and Jackson is among the best in the business in that department. New England has also been terrible against opposing tight ends, and Baltimore has a pair of weapons at that position in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely.
This should be where the Patriots’ double-digit winning streak ends, and getting that out of the way before the playoffs could actually be beneficial for the team.
Ravens 34, Patriots 31
(Projected record: (12-3)
Week 17: at New York Jets (2-8)
The Jets are playing hard for head coach Aaron Glenn, and they may actually be better with Tyrod Taylor as QB1. They’re still the Jets, though, and the Patriots have been lights-out against bad competition since October.
Patriots 30, Jets 14
(Projected record: 13-3)
Week 18: vs. Miami Dolphins (4-7)
This matchup clearly favors the Patriots, as the Dolphins will likely want nothing to do with a cold-weather game in Foxboro to wrap up their season. The big question here is, will it even be in the Patriots’ best interest to play Drake Maye and the starters in Week 18?
At the projected number of 13 wins, the Patriots could already have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, clinched by the Dolphins game, per analyst Chad Graff of The Athletic. It could ultimately come down to how the Denver Broncos fare, but they have a much tougher schedule down the stretch with games against current playoff hopefuls Green Bay, Jacksonville, Kansas City, and the Los Angeles Chargers.
For the record, the Patriots win this game if Maye starts and plays all four quarters. The guess here is that the majority of New England’s starters are held back as the team prepares for a long playoff run, giving Miami the edge (for now).
Dolphins 22, Patriots 17
(Projected record: 13-4)
Final 2025 projected record: 13-4
We had the Patriots finishing with 11 wins back in mid-October, but clearly, that wasn’t giving them enough credit. They’ve had bad injury luck in recent weeks and have a monster stretch coming out of their Week 14 bye.
Expectations for the next five games should be tempered somewhat, but a 3-2 mark over this stretch would clinch the AFC East and likely keep New England as the No. 1 seed for the AFC playoffs.