Patriots fans should hope new draft odds won't become the team's reality

After it was clear that even the addition of Drake Maye as the starting quarterback wasn't going to save the Patriots' 2024 season, many fans started to look ahead to next year's draft in hopes that the team would covet a high first-round pick to either use in a trade down or take one of the best prospects available in the class.

It's similar to the situation the Patriots were in last year, as it was clear they would be rewarded with a top-5 pick after another disappointing season. That allowed them to select Drake Maye and remove the need for a quarterback away from the list, meaning the 2024 NFL Draft will focus on other needy positions on the roster.

What that position will be remains unclear, as the quarterback class is not very deep and won't allow a team like New England to rely on quarterbacks jumping off the board in the picks ahead ahead of them. They could try to go for a top wide receiver or left tackle, both very much needed, but where they will ultimately wind up in the draft order will most certainly determine their fate.

They were locked in with the first overall pick for much of the season. However, because they have won a couple of games since Maye took over, they have now fallen to the sixth pick, therefore limiting their options far more than they previously were.

Most fans don't want to see that, which might make it much nicer to hear that they are currently the favorites to ultimately land the first overall pick.

The Patriots currently have the best chance of holding the No. 1 pick in 2025

While being a bad enough team to be given the No. 1 pick in the draft is not what any fan would want to happen, the Patriots are in a position to benefit significantly from that being the case. Because they don't need a quarterback, they'll have teams knocking their doors down to trade up, especially since the incoming class of signal callers is not as highly regarded as those in the 2024 Draft.

Fortunately, despite holding the No. 6 pick heading into Week 12, Chief Analytics Officer at FTNFantasy Aaron Schatz revealed his team has the Patriots as the current favorites to land the top pick in next year's draft during an appearance on the "Eye On Foxborough" podcast this week.

His assertion is based on their simulations for the Patriots final season record, which has them winning just one more game the rest of the way, leaving them with a 4-13 record. However, he doesn't negate the possibility of them winning more than that.

“We have them with the strongest chance of getting the No. 1 pick. But it’s by like one percent over other teams. We have them at 19 percent to get the No. 1 pick.

There’s a lot of bad teams jockeying back and forth. They may end up with that No. 1 pick. It would be really interesting if they did because I would think they would trade down with a team that needed a quarterback. That would help them to get more assets and build for the future.

But I think they could win two more games, and I think they should want to. I honestly think it’s better for them to have the 5th or 6th pick, and a little bit more of a winning culture, than to feel, ‘Oh my God, we went 3-and-14.”

Considering the teams they will be fighting against to land that first overall pick, like the Browns, Jaguars, and Panthers, it's a bit concerning to think the Patriots might have a worse end of the season than teams that have had countless issues with their quarterbacks and head coaches.

Yet, at the same time, if they land the best pick in the draft, it gives them a long list of opportunities to capitalize on that positioning and build the team for the future. It might not be the best draft to want to trade down from the top spot, but teams will always be willing to pay to move up.

Besides that, there is a lot more benefit to the Patriots winning more games and nullifying their chance to land the coveted selection, for the very reason Schatz said: to build a winning culture moving forward. That will help the current roster and the coaching staff, but it will also sweeten the idea of playing for the Patriots for upcoming free agent players they could benefit from signing.

That might set them up for more success in the future than adding another draft pick or two this year or next.

More Patriots news and analysis: