A lot has been said of the 2025 New England Patriots and their road to the Super Bowl. As if an easier schedule would translate to instant postseason success, the naysayers believe Mike Vrabel's team won't be as successful next season.
Naturally, as AFC East champions, the Patriots will now face a tougher road to the mountaintop in 2026. That will put this squad to the test, and they'll be highly motivated to show that last year's breakout wasn't a fluke.
However, even if the new schedule looks more challenging at first glance, that might not be the case after all. As Boston.com's Conor Ryan points out, advanced metrics suggest the Patriots may not sweat it that much in 2026.
The Patriots will face the 12th-easiest schedule in 2026
"As noted by Jacob Robinson of The Athletic on the publication’s NFL newsletter, the Patriots are projected to have a favorable — if not pedestrian — schedule next season when factoring in projected win totals and the quality of competition they’re set to face," Ryan wrote.
Sharp Analysis calculated the actual strength of each team's schedule, not based on their 2025 record, but on projected win totals from Las Vegas. That way, it also considers offseason moves rather than just previous success -- or lack thereof.
These projections make much more sense. At the end of the day, this team can't look at the Kansas City Chiefs as a six-win team, the same way they can't consider the Pittsburgh Steelers a 10-win squad if Aaron Rodgers isn't on the field.
At the end of the day, teams can only beat whoever is in front of them, and holding the schedule against the Patriots is just lazy. They got the job done against some of the best defenses in the league in the playoffs, and this is the toughest league on Earth; no one just happens to win 17 of 21 games in a season.
Whatever the case, Mike Vrabel's team will take the field with a massive chip on their shoulders after such a tough loss in the Super Bowl.
They didn't need any additional motivation, but after hearing all the outside noise and everything that has been said about this team in the past couple of months, they should look to make a statement from Week 1, regardless of who they have to go against.
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