The New England Patriots surprisingly ousted the Buffalo Bills from the top of the AFC East with a Cinderella-like 2025 debut season from Head Coach Mike Vrabel and an impressive season from quarterback Drake Maye. But the Bills still have former MVP quarterback Josh Allen, and beating him is never easy.
Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport has "realistic predictions" for how first-year NFL coaches will do with their new teams. In the case of Buffalo and their new coach, Joe Brady, he predicts that they'll go 12-5.
Yet, the real question isn't how well the Bills will do; they'll be terrific, but how well the Patriots will follow up their surprising 2025 season this year. The Patriots' weaknesses were exposed in their Super Bowl drubbing at the hands of the clearly better Seattle Seahawks.
They needed big-time offseason additions to that squad, and thus far, Patriot Nation hasn't seen enough of them.
Add a very different and far more difficult schedule to the mix, and the Patriots will have their hands full just trying to stay with the Bills in 2026. The team had two overarching priorities this offseason. They were both in preventing and producing sacks. Being out-sacked 6-1 in the Super Bowl, finished their 2025 season on a low note. Thus far, they've done little to boost either critical imperative.
The Patriots have a real challenge ahead if the Bills bounce back to challenge for the divisional crown
Josh Allen is a force of nature under center for the Bills, who'll be opening up their new Highmark Stadium this season. If the eight-year veteran doesn't beat you with his accurate throwing arm, he'll bowl you over with his running. He's a 6'5", 237-pound bulldozer masquerading as a quarterback. He's as good as it gets in the NFL, and nothing's going to change that in 2026, including having a new coach, Joe Brady, to replace quite a good former one, Sean McDermott.
Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport has "realistic predictions" of how first-year NFL coaches with their new teams will do. In the case of the Bills, his take is no surprise whatsoever. They'll be Super Bowl competitive as always and he predicts they'll end the season with a 12-5 record.
"...after coming up short of the Super Bowl once again, the Buffalo Bills showed Sean McDermott the door. Rather than hire from the outside, the Bills promoted from within, giving offensive coordinator Joe Brady the big chair...Brady offers a measure of continuity to a team that was hardly floundering—the Bills won 12 games in 2025.
Buffalo endeavored to give Allen the "go-to" wideout the team badly needed with a trade for D.J. Moore...But there also isn't a first-year head coach in the league under more pressure than Brady. The expectation for the Bills is a trip to SoFi Stadium in February to play in Super Bowl LXI. The inability to meet that expectation is why McDermott got the boot."
One thing Davenport left out is that McDermott was one heckuva coach himself. No, he didn't win the ultimate prize, but he's a winner. Expect him to be back as an NFL head coach probably next season.
Now, though, it's Joe Brady's turn at the helm. But as long as Josh Allen is leading the team, 12 should be the minimum number of wins he'll get.
That is an ongoing problem for Mike Vrabel and his Drake Maye-led Patriots. There'll be no coasting to any titles with their much more difficult 2026 schedule. Hopefully, several things will happen by the end of the offseason to make a return trip to the top of the AFC East feasible.
First, both Drake Maye and Will Campbell will need to be 100% healthy. In addition, by the end of the offseason, the Patriots will have had to substantially fortify both their offensive line and their sack-producing edge players. If those eventualities become reality, the Bills will be in for another tough fight for the 2026 AFC East crown, no matter who their coach and quarterback are.
If not, the Patriots can forget winning the AFC East title in 2026. It's not happening.