As the 2026 offseason continues for the New England Patriots, they are working to improve their roster, which has many holes to fill. The team has made a couple of nice free agent signings. One was All-Pro safety Kevin Byard III. Another was a No. 2-level wide receiver, Romeo Doubs. Other than those two, their efforts have been underwhelming.
At least one analyst, Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk, has them slotted in behind the Bills, who he thinks will win the AFC East in 2026.
It's hard to argue with Smith's analysis in light of the Patriots' lackluster free agency showing thus far. They have done little to improve their offensive line, the unit that should be their top priority this offseason. They have added an injury-prone guard, Alijah Vera-Tucker, and a backup tackle, James Hudson.
They needed a solid No. 2 tight end, and they only signed a blocker in Julian Hill. They have failed to address the defensive line, and inside linebackers are thin, as well. On the edge, they have only swapped one decent one for another. The net is zero.
So, thinking that they are behind the Bills at this point in the offseason is reasonable.
The Patriots have a lot more work to do to win the AFC East in 2026
Smith has the Bills as the favorites to win the AFC East once again. It's not a far-fetched prediction.
"The Patriots engineered a major turnaround under first-year coach Mike Vrabel and young quarterback Drake Maye last season, winning the AFC East and then winning the AFC Championship. They look like a team that could be in contention for years to come.
But the Bills had won the AFC East five years in a row prior to last year, and the odds suggest that with Josh Allen playing in first-year head coach Joe Brady’s offense, they’ll get back on top."
Smith's take is a sound and sober calculation for Patriot Nation to digest. Any team sporting a former MVP quarterback can never be counted out or discounted as a potential, if not likely, divisional winner. The determinant will be how well Mike Vrabel and his personnel staff finish their offseason after a mediocre beginning.
Vrabel and his personnel team's 2026 free agency efforts are a far cry from their outstanding 2025 effort. Then, they upgraded numerous positions on both sides of the ball in free agency. Thus far, the 2026 offseason's performance lags well behind that of 2025.
The inattention to dramatically upgrading the offensive line is his biggest gaffe thus far. He signed Vera-Tucker, an injury-prone guard who's excellent when he plays, but who didn't play a snap in 2025. He's also going to rely on a center, Jared Wilson, who played left guard in 2025 but hasn't played center since 2024, his final college season at Georgia.
As for sack production, Vrabel has only swapped one good edge for another. He let K'Lavon Chaisson go in free agency and signed an older player with fewer 2025 sacks, Dre'Mont Jones, to replace him. The other is a player who had injury issues in 2025, Harold Landry III. After them, there is no depth at the position.
The Patriots still have late free agency, trades, and the draft to fill their numerous remaining holes on the O-line, tight end, running back, wide receiver, edge, inside linebacker, and defensive tackle. It's a long list, and unless and until it's filled with better players than the 2025 versions, Michael Smith's prediction that the Bills will win the AFC East is spot on. And, it may not even be that close a race.