The New England Patriots secured their third divisional win of the season against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, taking their record to 5-3 through eight weeks.
Miami has historically played the Patriots tightly, even back in the days of Tom Brady. An early-season loss in Miami always seemed a given, even when New England was at its peak. In the 2020s, the Dolphins led the series against the Patriots 8-5.
In 2020, they officially knocked the Cam Newton-led squad out of playoff contention, and in 2021, Miami swept a 10-7 New England for the first time in over two decades. They repeated that feat in 2023 and 2024.
In 2025, the Patriots returned the favor with a sweep of their own, including a 38-10 Week 18 dismantling. The Patriots extended their win streak to three during the four o'clock window on Sunday in a contentious, rainy 24-19 win.
The main factor keeping the game close was the lack of talent around Drake Maye after the team's injuries. Even after elevating Ryan Miller, the Patriots rostered just four receivers. After Hunter Henry went down with an injury, rookies Eli Raridon and Tanner Arkin were entrusted with the tight end roles.
Beyond the team's lack of talent, the Patriots' clock-management decisions at the end of each half kept the game closer than it needed to be, and a fourth-quarter decision nearly proved fatal.
Mike Vrabel's agressiveness nearly worked against him
Mike Vrabel has shown no hesitancy to be aggressive since the beginning of 2025, and for good reason. The Patriots ranked second in fourth-down conversion rate last season and ranked fourth in 2026, with a higher success rate (76.9%) than last year (72.4%).
That fourth-down aggressiveness and success continued on Sunday, as catches from Efton Chism and Pop Douglas kept the Patriots on the field on their pair of fourth-down conversion attempts.
Vrabel's fourth-down aggressiveness could be justified. The offense needed to "steal a possession" whenever it could, given their lack of talent, and Andy Borregales' missed 40-yard field goal didn't instill confidence. The coaching staff's aggressiveness nearly hurt the team in other ways.
At the end of the first half, Gabe Jacas sacked Malik Willis on second down, setting up a 3rd & 8 from the Dolphins' own 32-yard line. With the Dolphins leading 6-3, the Patriots called a timeout to give Maye a chance to push the ball downfield before the clock expired.
On the next play, Greg Dulcich caught a pass for 19 yards, kickstarting a Dolphins touchdown drive that widened their lead to two possessions before the half.
With a healthy receiver room and good weather, calling a timeout in that situation might make sense. However, given the offense's first-half performance, letting the clock run down to around a minute would have been the better plan, in my eyes.
At 3rd & 8 with a minute left, the Dolphins likely would have run to drain more clock, at which point the Patriots could have taken a timeout. Alternatively, a conversion could have seen the Dolphins attempt a field goal with less time on the clock.
The Patriots moved the ball through the air in the first half only through Hunter Henry, who was out of the game by then. The ROI of calling a timeout in that situation is very low.
End of game decisions caused more stress than need be
While Vrabel's decision to call a timeout led to points for Miami, the play call I have a far bigger issue with came in the fourth quarter. With 4:20 on the clock, the Patriots faced 3rd & 5, leading 24-13. The Dolphins used their second timeout on the play earlier to save some time, leaving them with only one.
With the rain pouring down and the clock on New England's side, a run would result in one of three things. The ideal scenario, of course, is a first down. The clock keeps rolling, and the Patriots' clock-killing drive continues.
Alternatively, if the Patriots don't convert, the clock keeps running, and 3:40 remains as the Dolphins get the ball back. The final possibility, and the most likely in my eyes, would see the Dolphins call their final timeout after the play.
Regardless, the Dolphins lose a stoppage of time, and Malik Willis gets the ball back deep in his own territory with under four minutes while down by two possessions. Also, the third-down run would have opened the Patriots up to going for it on fourth and short if it had cut the distance down significantly.
That’s the worst play call of the night.
— Graham Wilker (@GrahamWilker1) November 2, 2026
There’s 4:20 left on the clock and Kiner’s run the ball well, hand the ball off. Either you A) get the first down, or B) punt after draining 40 seconds off the clock/forcing the Dolphins to use their last timeout
So poor from McDaniels
Instead, Eli Raridon dropped a pass; the clock stopped, and the Patriots punted. Miami kept their timeout and scored before the two-minute warning, cutting the deficit to five after an unsuccessful two-point conversion.
After the Patriots recovered the onside kick, they had a 3rd & 5 with a chance to seal the game. They opted for a run up the middle from Rhamondre Stevenson, which picked up the first down, pushing the team to 5-3 on the season. Had they run the ball at the same down and distance earlier, it would have been a far less stressful end to the game.
New England won the game, so their clock management woes will likely be forgotten. Nonetheless, decisions like these can cost teams the game, especially against superior opponents. With such an underwhelming group of skill-position players, the margin for error is slim, so making the right decisions in these situations is key to staying in playoff contention.
The Patriots will face off against the Packers at home before playing the Lions in Germany. With a combined 10-5 record so far, each team promises a tougher opponent than the Dolphins.
Drake Maye needs all the help he can get, and that starts with strong decision-making from the coaching staff.
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