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New projection gives Patriots praise for hitting pause on big free agent signing

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) leaves the field Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, after losing a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) leaves the field Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, after losing a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The 2026 offseason began with the Patriots coming off a devastating Super Bowl loss that exposed all the flaws in their roster, which was, ironically, a blessing in disguise. Although the loss stung, it revealed the team's biggest weaknesses right before free agency began, and one of the most highlighted groups was the receiving corps.

It ultimately led to the decision to release Stefon Diggs, which inevitably connected New England to some of the top names headed for the free-agent market. They were predominantly linked to receiver Alec Pierce, who was set to test free agency for the first time in his young career.

He made his desires well known to the teams most likely to inquire about his availability, stating he wanted a more featured role in an offense since he was coming off a standout season in which he recorded a career-high 47 receptions.

The Patriots looked like the perfect place to go, and according to reports, they were heavily pursuing Pierce, only to see him re-sign with the Colts and never hit free agency.

It was a huge blow right at the start of the legal tampering period and forced Eliot Wolf to look in a new direction, which eventually became Romeo Doubs. And although he wasn't the ideal target in the eyes of the fans, as Pierce became increasingly popular, a new projection shows that the Patriots were fortunate to have missed out.

Alec Pierce isn't destined for greatness in return to the Colts, which is great news for the Patriots

Because they didn't even get a legitimate chance to speak to Pierce before he re-signed with the Colts, it's unclear how willing they would be to match the offer he received from Indianapolis, so there's a possibility he never would've been considered to join the team.

Regardless, Patriots fans hoped he would come to Foxboro, given his age and explosiveness, he could bring to the offense.

But the latest prediction from FanSided's Justin Carter, it's more likely that Pierce will regress in 2026 if given the expected more prominent role, and that's exactly what the Patriots would not need during a very telling season.

"Can Pierce succeed in a larger role, with more targets in the short and intermediate game? Or is it going to quickly become the case that Josh Downs becomes the No. 1 option and Pierce is left in the same role he's had. And if that's the case, leading the league in yards per receptions for a third year in a row seems like it would be pretty difficult, right?"

His potential certainly looked desirable, especially to pair with a young quarterback like Drake Maye, but if Pierce is not going to build upon what he accomplished last season, if that's his ceiling, then the Patriots are lucky that he re-signed with the Colts before they could have a conversation about signing him.

They needed a more consistent playmaker for Maye to work with, and although Doubs has to prove he can be that, they have A.J. Brown as insurance, knowing they have that option.

Pierce has certainly shown a lot of potential, but he might be too unproven for the Patriots to have built their receiving corps around him, and that might be an issue the Colts eventually learn instead.

That's a lesson the Patriots have learned a lot over the last five years since Julian Edelman retired, but hopefully they have finally found the right pass catchers to make the offense the dynamic group it once was, which can make Maye's job a lot easier.

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