Mike Vrabel inherited a mess in Foxborough when he accepted the coaching position in January. It's unlikely this true professional had any illusions about the challenges he faced. First, he had to build a new coaching staff and a competent personnel operation, and then, there was the slight matter of completely rebuilding the worst roster in the NFL. Welcome to reality.
Undaunted, Vrabel attacked the first hurdle and built a capable, NFL-ready coaching staff. Then, he set about to rebuild a roster that was decimated over several years by abysmal drafting, poor free agent signings, and ill-advised contract extensions.
Yet, Vrabel did have three things he could depend on. One is his uber-professionalism. He's a top NFL coach, team culture-builder, and personnel evaluator. Another was that he has a very good young quarterback, Drake Maye, around whom to build. A third is that he had solid draft capital and cap space to apply to the task. As expected, he applied both brilliantly in a great first offseason.
Mike Vrabel still has huge hurdles to overcome with the Patriots
Rome wasn't built in a day, and an NFL team isn't going to be rebuilt almost from scratch in one offseason. What Vrabel has done with his first offseason is to shore up his starting players on both sides of the ball.
The 2024 team lost six games by one score; he's already narrowed that gap. His problem is even he can't reconstruct an entire roster in one offseason. Injuries happen, and the depth to withstand them isn't there yet. Vrabel's task was a herculean one.
ESPN's Neil Paine has speculated about which of the new NFL coaches' teams have good and which not-so-good potential. Mike Vrabel is in the latter category. Paine ranked him sixth-worst of the seven new coaches.
"Everyone agreed that Vrabel's reunion with the Patriots made far too much sense to not happen...Maye's passing efficiency remains a work in progress, though his mobility propped up his QBR...However, an offseason spending spree has locked them into a bunch of big bets right away -- a risk when we consider how unpredictable the outcomes of offseason moves can be. All of this explains why the Patriots rank lower than their fit with Vrabel would seem to indicate."
Paine's analysis yields the right conclusion. Vrabel has a tall task ahead of him. Yet, with a greatly improved starting cast on both sides of the ball, it may not be as dire as he predicts. There are key reasons why this Patriots team will surprise and may very well be a 2025 playoff contender.
The Patriots now have Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, a top NFL combination
Seeing a reason for optimism for the 2025 Patriots isn't rocket science. The team now has one of the best coaches in the NFL. That's a major component. They won't be outcoached by anyone. In addition, they now have a more seasoned Drake Maye, who was darn good in 2024 with no preseason or early-season first-team reps at all, and little in the way of accompaniment at hand.
Maye now has an improved starting offensive line by far, despite the naysayers' derogatory comments. There is little depth anywhere, but the first-teamers, even the rookies, can play. He also has far better skill players at his disposal in Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, and Efton Chism III, to add to Hunter Henry and Pop Douglas.
On defense, Vrabel strengthened every level with playmakers. From the interior defensive line to the edges, linebackers, and the defensive backfield, he added better players who make plays. They are miles ahead of the lackluster 2024 group, which made few plays that changed games.
The 2025 Patriots, barring major injuries, will be OK early, but it will take several games for the rookie starters to acclimate to the NFL. Expect a slower start, but by the fifth game or so, expect this team to be slugging it out with good teams. Then, after game 10 or so, it may very well play itself into playoff contention.
The 2025 season will be a three-phase process, but absent catastrophic injuries, expect ongoing progress throughout the season, and possibly even a playoff berth.