Predictions about the 2026 NFL season abound as training camp begins and the New England Patriots are at the center of a number of them.
Drake Maye, reinforced by No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown and new No. 2 wideout Romeo Doubs, is set to take the NFL by storm. Yet their now-more-difficult strength-of-schedule is tamping down expectations for some.
SB Nation's Jarrett Bailey has made 61 predictions for the 2026 NFL season. In his No. 11 prediction, Bailey had the Patriots doing a belly flop in their first four games as they face four 2025 playoff teams, with three of those games on the road. He sees a 1-3 record.
But later on in his prediction No. 42, he has the Patriots making the playoffs regardless, but losing the AFC East Division to Buffalo.
The Patriots face a guantlet of playoff teams to start the 2026 season
The Patriots had a whirlwind Cinderella-like 2025 season riding the crest of the Drake Maye wave right into the Super Bowl before their carriage crashed. Maye and company shocked the NFL by not only winning 14 games in the regular season, a notable 10-game increase over 2024's win total, but also getting all the way to the Super Bowl before being summarily dispatched by the Seahawks
2025 was a fun ride while it lasted, but Seattle fully exposed the flaws in the one-year Mike Vrabel-led roster reconstruction. Now, to put the Patriots to an ultimate early test, they will face the Seahawks in Seattle on September 9 in a Super Bowl rematch. This game will demonstrate just how well Vrabel has upgraded a roster deficient in a number of areas.
After that 1-3 start, Bailey still sees the Patriots taking the No. 6 seed in the playoffs while losing the Division to the Bills.
"New England takes a bit of a step back in 2026, but that’s expected when you win 14 games the year before. They get to 10-7 and earn the second wild card spot in the AFC."
Bailey's prediction is ominous for a Super Bowl team, yet it's not unrealistic. He sees a team emerging from a mortifying first four games at 1-3 yet still making the playoffs as the sixth seed at 10-7. It's a four-game differential from last season's 14-3.
When you win your division, you reap both the benefits of that season and the whirlwind in your next year's schedule.
Vrabel has had a full offseason to try to rectify the deficiencies that were obvious against Seattle in the Super Bowl. The sack differential of 6-1 in that game in the Seahawks' favor decided the contest, along with three New England turnovers.
Vrabel has done some good work this offseason, but in the key positions he needed to fortify, all save the wide receiver unit still have lingering questions.
The Patriots still need work at the edge with the troubling situation involving Harold Landry III's knee and rookie Gabe Jacas now just entering the picture, perhaps with health issues. The tight end position is also paper-thin, and the offensive line has little depth. Hopefully, Maye, with his revamped receiver unit, can pick up the slack.
Expect them to do so and emerge from the first four games with a 2-2 record and make the playoffs. Regardless, 2026's challenges will be formidable, and there's still work to be done to prepare.
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