The 2025 New England Patriots, guided by NFL Coach of the Year and almost-MVP quarterback Drake Maye, shocked the NFL by winning the AFC East for the first time in six years and reaching the Super Bowl. There, the weaknesses of the one-offseason rebuild were painfully exposed by a superior Seattle Seahawks team.
Regardless, few had predicted such a great, over-achieving season.
Now the focus has turned to 2026, and ESPN's reporters have predicted who'll win the NFL's divisions. Not shockingly, three of the four reporters have predicted 2026's AFC East winner, and only one familiar name has chosen the Patriots: Boston's Mike Reiss. The rest chose the Bills.
Top name analysts aren't showing much faith in the Patriots repeating their 2025 success
It's neither shocking nor surprising that the majority of reporters would default back to the Bills as the presumptive favorites in the AFC East. The Bills have an MVP-level quarterback in Josh Allen, and no season is lost with him at the helm.
The Bills will be formidable every year Allen is running the offense. And with the substantial increase in the Patriots' difficulty of schedule in 2026, picking the Bills is anything but foolhardy.
Regardless, Reiss chose the Patriots, and he succinctly and quite correctly pointed out just how and why they may again surprise, if not shock, the NFL and take home the AFC East title.
"Despite a tougher schedule and the likelihood they won't be able to duplicate their 14-3 record, the Patriots will still have enough to win the division. Key factors in the projection are Maye rising even higher in the NFL's elite QB ranks, a motivated Brown providing him a bona fide No. 1 receiver and the likely learning curve of Brady with the Bills, the only other team with a realistic chance of contending. "
Reiss's two key points are Drake Maye and his continuing emergence as a great NFL quarterback, and the addition of the dynamic A.J. Brown to his receiving unit. Maye is not only the NFL's best passer but is progressing toward becoming its best quarterback.
The acquisition of A.J. Brown to lead the team's receiving corps gives Maye a true No. 1 receiver.
It's nice to see Reiss' optimism, but Maye and Brown are only two of the team's components. It has to excel in all three phases of the game to overcome a much more challenging schedule and an always-tough, always-winning Bills team. No matter that the Bills have had a coaching change, with Josh Allen in the division, nothing can ever be taken for granted.
Drake Maye is the Patriots' wild card in the divisional race
Regardless, Reiss' point still carries a lot of gravitas. The still-only-23-year-old Maye's maturation is taking place right before Patriot Nation's eyes. Maye led a flawed 2025 offense to the Super Bowl with an uncanny ability to scramble away from pressure and make plays. His league-leading 72% completion and top NFL quarterback rating demonstrated that emphatically.
Vrabel worked hard during the offseason on his rebuild, with mixed results. The wide receiver corps has been rebuilt with the addition of Brown and No. 2 receiver Romeo Doubs.
Yet, other positional groups remain thin. These include tight end on offense and the defensive edge. Injuries and off-field issues have thinned these positions, and Vrabel should add to each before the season starts.
The 2026 Patriots offense will be improved, and Maye's production may increase dramatically with Brown and Doubs around. Those aspects alone offer justification for Reiss's positive outlook for the Patriots, who'll be poised to score a lot more points in 2026.
While the defense lacks depth, it does have significant top-echelon contributors such as Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, Christian Gonzalez, and All-Pro safety Kevin Byard III. That's why Mike Reiss is right, this Patriots team with the duo of Maye and Brown on offense (and a solid defense) is dangerous.
If things break right, they're fully capable of repeating as AFC East champions in 2026.
Add us as a preferred source on Google