The New England Patriots would be the No. 2 seed if the season ended today. While we still have four weeks left and they could easily jump the Broncos, who also sit at 11-2, it seems a pretty safe bet New England will face the No. 7 seed should they be unable to snag the first-round bye.
After a massive Sunday Night Football win over the Chiefs, the Texans jumped into the seventh slot. After starting 0-3, they've stormed back to win their last 10 and are undefeated in their last five. In that win streak, they took down the Jaguars, Bills, Colts, and Chiefs, all high-quality wins.
They also lost by three to Denver while Davis Mills started under center. Each of their five losses has come from teams currently in playoff position, including the Rams, Seahawks, and Buccaneers.
The Texans are a legit squad, and are one of the better No. 7 seeds New England could play. If they were to match up in the first round, it would be a very difficult game for the Patriots. With their momentum and the Colts' lack thereof, they'll be fighting with the Jaguars for the division title, and at this point, I'd say that Houston wins the South.
Whether it be in the first round or otherwise, they would be an interesting measuring stick for New England.
The Houston Texans would be a difficult matchup for New England
The Texans are winning for a reason. They have the best defense in football, allowing just 16 points per game. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are one of the best duos in football off the edge, and the defensive backfield is strong. Derek Stingley is one of the best in football, while Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre excel in their roles.
Houston ranks third in pass defense and fifth against the run. Their defense is elite from top to bottom, and there aren't many holes. They've allowed just 38.1 yards per game to tight ends this year, while Hunter Henry ranks third in yards per game, on pace for his best season. Something will have to give for one of New England's top threats.
Offensively, it's a different story. The Texans are 20th in PPG, with the 23rd-ranked rushing attack. Woody Marks averages just 3.5 yards a carry, and the team averaged 3.9. Their 16th-ranked passing attack is better, and no doubt improves with C.J. Stroud back in the fold.
The passing attack should be the main concern for any team facing the Texans. Nico Collins is a star, and Iowa State rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have been productive as of late. Dalton Schultz leads the team in catches, and the Patriots have struggled against tight ends this year.
Between their elite offense and promising outside weapons, it would seem the Texans should be invincible, but their offensive line lets them down. C.J. Stroud is 23rd, and Davis Mills is last (44th) in time to throw (min. 100 snaps) this season.
Their line is a hodgepodge group. Rookie Aireontae Ersery starts at left tackle, allowing eight penalties and seven sacks this year. Left guard Tytus Howard has also been penalized eight times, while center Jake Andrews is PFF's 28th best at the position. Ed Ingram has had a very strong season after three dismal seasons in Minnesota, and Trent Brown starts at right tackle.
The Patriots should be able to get after Stroud if they play Houston, but playing against their rabid defense is a scary thought. The Texans are an excellent team, and for the Patriots' sake, we can only hope they'll claim the AFC South throne.