The New England Patriots have vastly improved their offense compared to last season. After ranking 30th in PPG last year, Drake Maye and company have shot up to 7th in football, scoring 27 per game. Even more impressive, they haven't seen a drop off in offense on the road, as they average even more PPG (27.7) outside of Foxborough.
Drake Maye leads the league in pass yards, and New England is third in pass yards per game. While the rushing offense ranks 20th, TreVeyon Henderson has been a revelation to the backfield in Rhamondre Stevenson's absence, with 60+ yards in five out of the last six weeks, including a 147-yard performance against the Buccaneers and five total touchdowns in a two-game span.
The offense as a whole hasn't been an issue, but one specific part of Maye's unit has become a problem over the last two weeks: red zone production. The Patriots haven't had an issue finding the red zone: they're 10th in trips per game at 3.6 per contest, and have 12 trips inside the 20 in their last three.
Despite ranking high in trips, they haven't been able to score touchdowns when it matters. That needs to change, and fast.
The Patriots' red zone production needs to be far better if they want to be competitive down the stretch
New England's 51.06% red-zone touchdown rate ranks 24th in the league, below the Jets, Browns, and Raiders. For a team whose record is the best in the league, that's a shocking figure. Over their last three games, they've scored only four touchdowns in 12 trips, a 33.3% rate that would rank them last in the league if extrapolated over a season.
They ranked 30th in this figure last year, so while it is a slight improvement, it needs to improve drastically. Against the Bengals, New England had the ball inside the five-yard line twice but managed only three points on the two trips. Against the Giants, four of Andy Borregales' kicks came from inside the red zone, from the 5, 6, 11, and 13-yard lines.
Missing nose tackle Khyiris Tonga, who's operated as a jumbo fullback in short-yardage situations, was huge. Tonga is the 14th-best run blocker in the league according to PFF when omitting snap count parameters, and his block against the Buccaneers made way for a 55-yard TreVeyon Henderson touchdown.
Having Tonga back after the bye will help, but the run game needs to improve in short-yardage situations, and that improvement should be prioritised come the offseason. Investing in a more traditional fullback could certainly help. Bills' Reggie Gilliam and Jets' Andrew Beck, who entered the league with the Patriots, could be options. Max Bredeson, brother of Buccaneers guard Ben Bredeson, could be an option they look at in the draft.
The Patriots will need to find a way to improve their red-zone efficiency for the remainder of the year and should look to free agency or the draft to improve their run game long term. The return of Tonga will help, but the downfall of an excellent team could be their inability to gain just a few extra yards when it counts.