The New England Patriots got their season back on track with a tremendous Week 5 win over the Buffalo Bills, as Drake Maye earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.
Now, the Patriots are set to face off against the Las Vegas Raiders for the second season in a row. In Week 1 of 2025, the Raiders won 20-13, but the Patriots are 3.5-point favorites as things stand.
The 3-1 Raiders are off to a hot start, while New England's rough September form stalled with a divisional win over Buffalo. The game should supply plenty of intrigue.
4 predictions ahead of the Patriots matchup with the 3-1 Raiders
Drake Maye's stat line regresses to that of a game manager, despite stellar Week 4
NFL fans rarely view being called a game manager positively, but it's the job description of a good quarterback. Maye proved last week that the magic on display in 2025 wasn't a fluke, and I expect his three-touchdown performance to lead to stronger showings over the next few months.
Given how the Raiders are built, I'd expect the Patriots to rely more on the run in Week 5 than they have in the past few weeks. Las Vegas ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game, conceding 134.5 YPG. This figure comes despite the signings of linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker.
Furthermore, the Patriots' offensive line, now missing Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten, will face one of the league's best pass rushers, Maxx Crosby. In Week 1 last season, Crosby forced a strip-sack and totaled 7 pressures, his season-high by year's end.
Malcolm Koonce has also totaled 2.5 sacks in the first four games, while former first-round pick Kwity Paye recorded a pair of sacks in the first game of the year.
The Raiders' weak interior gives the Patriots a tremendous opportunity to run the ball, likely leaving Drake Maye with a high completion percentage and a pedestrian total of passing yards.
Patriots rushing attack explodes as TreVeyon Henderson eclipses the century mark
This prediction goes hand-in-hand with Maye's moderate stat line. Aside from the Raiders' weak run defense, New England's thinning receiving corps will likely see them add to the plates of both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson.
Mack Hollins has already been ruled out, leaving Romeo Doubs, Pop Douglas, Efton Chism, and Kyle Williams the only healthy options.
Henderson only slightly outran Stevenson against Buffalo, 14 to 13. Since Henderson's return in Week 2, Stevenson has gotten just 26 carries, compared to Henderson's 38. Going forward, the former Buckeye will likely be the primary back, and I expect him to pop against a poor Raiders defense.
Jacksonville's run defense ranks second in the league, while the Bills have a talented group with Ed Oliver and Deone Walker clogging the middle. Henderson totaled 76 yards and a touchdown while averaging 4.8 YPC against the Steelers, who have a far better defensive line than the Raiders.
Henderson will outcarry Stevenson, but the latter will still have a strong between-the-tackles role, likely exceeding 8.7 carries per game when he's shared the backfield. Nonetheless, Week 5 could be Henderson's breakout game, and the day he truly separates himself from the ex-Sooner.
Brock Bowers puts up impressive numbers despite Raiders offensive struggles
The Raiders' offense has two focal points: Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. Jeanty has come into his own during his sophomore campaign, averaging 107.3 total yards per game with two receiving touchdowns this year.
While his totals have been impressive, his efficiency has been subpar. Since an impressive Week 1, he's taken 55 carries for 162 yards. That's just 2.9 YPC and no touchdowns.
While the 2024 Heisman runner-up has seen high usage, his poor efficiency makes him less of a concern, especially considering he managed just 2.0 YPC against the Patriots last year. Bowers should be the main focus instead, though it seems unlikely he can will the Raiders to victory on his own.
In two games this season, Bowers has 16 catches for 202 yards and two scores. He's been one of Kirk Cousins' favorite targets, as the veteran has led the league in passing touchdowns through the first month of the season.
While the Patriots kept Dalton Kincaid quiet against Buffalo (one catch for 7 yards), they did so at the expense of Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir, who combined for 198 yards. Bowers is a far better tight end than Kincaid, and I wouldn't expect a team that struggled so much to defend tight ends last season as New England to suddenly lock down a player of Bowers' caliber.
The struggle to cover tight ends is all too apparent as Dawson Knox had two touchdowns today. This isn’t a new issue: it’s actually their biggest defensive problem🥴 #Patriots #nevsbuf pic.twitter.com/LHxXF2l7rv
— Graham Wilker (@GrahamWilker1) December 14, 2025
While I think the Patriots will shut down the Raiders' offense, Bowers should get his fair share of production.
Gabe Jacas manages first full sack since Week 1
For the first time since Week 1, the Patriots will have all three of their top edge defenders back after each played the previous week. Hopefully, that means Dre'Mont Jones, Elijah Ponder, and Gabe Jacas can start building momentum as a trio.
Jacas, in particular, is an intriguing prospect. New England signed Ponder as a UDFA at the conclusion of the 2025 draft, and while the team invested a three-year contract in Dre'Mont Jones, he'll be 32 by the end of his deal.
New England traded up in the second round for Jacas, and while it was a tumultuous summer for the rookie, he's held his own in the first few games.
Thus far, Jacas has recorded 1.5 sacks and an 11.4% pressure rate. His Week 4 matchup against the Bills marked the third consecutive game with 3+ pressures and his highest pressure rate to date, 21.4%.
His pressures included a particularly impressive one in which Josh Allen likely should have been called for intentional grounding in the end zone, resulting in a safety.
The Raiders' offensive line has been solid in their first few matchups, and adding Tyler Linderbaum and Spencer Burford to the interior has clearly helped. Nonetheless, Jacas could take advantage of right tackle DJ Glaze, who allowed 10 sacks last season while being penalized 5 times.
Glaze has allowed just a 2.4% pressure rate through the first month of play without conceding a sack, thanks to Klint Kubiak's system. Nonetheless, Glaze's 2025 wounds could reopen against Jacas and the Patriots: he conceded a 10% pressure rate and committed two penalties in Week 1 of last year.
Glaze's past performances against New England, paired with the rookie's crescendo in Buffalo (89.1 PFF pass-rush grade), could lead to Jacas taking down Cousins.
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