The New England Patriots host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday in a battle of the 5-3 squads. The Patriots remain one of the league's most injured squads, with Hunter Henry added to the injury graveyard after the game against the Dolphins. He didn't practice on Thursday or Friday.
The Patriots go into their matchup against the Packers as three-point favorites as of Thursday night, despite their injuries. The Packers will miss several contributors, including slot receiver Jayden Reed, starting linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, and superstar edge rusher Micah Parsons.
Nonetheless, the Patriots will need to be at their best to beat a strong Packers squad coming off a win last week on TNF after an extended break.
3 bold predictions ahead of the Patriots and Packers 5-3 battle
Despite a pair of Pro Bowl-level quarterbacks, the game will be a low scoring affair
Drake Maye and Jordan Love have each made it clear they are their respective franchise's cornerstones. Nonetheless, there's certainly a world where the scoreboard would make you think otherwise on Sunday.
While both quarterbacks can power high-octane offenses, each has their excuses. For Maye, it's his lack of high-quality weapons. Somewhat surprisingly, the Patriots' depth has held up well enough to string together wins over the last month, or otherwise stay competitive against the Caleb Williams-led Bears.
Nonetheless, relying on Pop Douglas, Kyle Williams, and Efton Chism as the top receiving options isn't sustainable. Mack Hollins returned to practice this week, but A.J. Brown is already ruled out, and Hunter Henry hasn't practiced the last two days. Maye's arsenal is in dire straits.
On Love's side of the ball, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have been excellent so far, while Tucker Kraft has offered a block-and-YAC option since returning from his 2025 ACL tear. Beyond the trio, though, there aren't many more arrows in the quiver.
Chris Brooks is the only running back who has surpassed 4.0 YPC this season, and he's taken only 15 carries all year. Marshawn Lloyd and Josh Jacobs' combined 89 carries have produced only 224 yards and three touchdowns so far, for an average of 2.5 YPC.
Beyond Watson, Golden, and Kraft, no Packer has 100 receiving yards thus far, while New England has nine players who've surpassed that low bar.
Beyond these concerns, the Patriots' defense ranks 9th in PPG allowed, while the Packers rank 10th. Both Zak Kuhr and Jonathan Gannon have their units firing on all cylinders, and each DC should feel good about their odds against the 23rd- and 16th-ranked offenses. Don't be surprised to see each team score under 21 points.
Christian Watson has season-low yard total with Christian Gonzalez in coverage
For anyone living under a rock, Christian Gonzalez is pretty good. The league's best receivers have struggled against him, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba being bottled up and Garrett Wilson giving Gonzalez his flowers.
Christian Gonzalez held Smith-Njigba without a reception on two targets aross 10 coverage matchups.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 10, 2026
JSN was targeted on half of his routes (9 of 18) against all other Patriots defenders.#NEvsSEA | #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/T2JnZGAAXx
Christian Watson isn't the player Smith-Njigba or Wilson is, but he is more physically imposing. At 6-foot-4, he's bigger than Gonzalez and is having a career-best season so far. While Golden and Kraft are more than respectable weapons, the Packers average 26.7 PPG this season when Watson has 100+ yards. That figure drops to 18.2 PPG when he doesn't reach that threshold.
Eliminating Watson from the game will be Kuhr's priority, and with Gonzalez and a healthy starting secondary for the second straight game, they have strong odds of doing so. Golden is among the league's best No. 2 receivers, but his success has meant less for the Packers' offense than Watson's has.
Nonetheless, with Carlton Davis on the former Texas Longhorn, I'd expect production to drop as well.
Tucker Kraft is too much for New England to handle, records season-best stat line
If limiting Watson is the primary game plan, other Packers will need to step up. As mentioned, Davis is a solid matchup for Golden, but the Packers' main advantage comes inside. Marcus Jones has struggled immensely with tight ends; his 5-foot-8 stature is the biggest issue. To his credit, his coverage is usually excellent; he can't make up for the size difference.
Kraft was on pace for over 1,000 yards last season before tearing his ACL. While he's regressed this season, he's still on pace to have a strong statistical year. Last game, he caught all six targets for 53 yards and a touchdown, his second consecutive game with a score.
Furthermore, when Watson was held to season lows in targets and catches against the Buccaneers in Week 4, Kraft was targeted seven times, hauling in six catches and his first score of the season. Limiting Watson means others will produce, and given the Patriots' history with tight ends, Kraft eclipsing his 65-yard season high is reasonable.
A yard total around the 75-yard mark wouldnt be catastrophic if New England can pin down Watson and Golden, but they need to be aware of Green Bay's tertiary receeiving threat.
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