Top Prop Bets for Week 17: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

The Patriots once again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Week 16. With New England’s secondary beat up, the Cincinnati Bengals marched down the field on the opening drive for a quick Tee Higgins touchdown. This set the tone, and it was all Cincinnati in the first half, as they led 22-0 at the break. On Christmas Eve at Gillette Stadium, ticket prices were shockingly low; before long, so too was the Christmas spirit for the loyal Patriots contingent.

However, as we’ve grown accustomed to this season, rookie jack-of-all-trades Marcus Jones bailed us out again. With a pick-six late in the third quarter, Jones ignited a Patriots comeback that saw the Bengals’ lead cut to 22-18.

After a costly Ja’Marr Chase fumble, the Patriots gained possession with 3:08 left in Bengals territory before ultimately moving the ball down to the five-yard line. On first-and-goal, Rhamondre Stevenson coughed the ball up while trying to make something happen, and any hopes of a comeback vanished. Twice in as many weeks, Stevenson made some questionable plays that arguably cost his team two victories. Yet, somehow, the Patriots still have a shot at the playoffs.

With our weekly prop piece, we went 2-2 once again. Late in the game, it looked like we had a great shot at 4-0. In a game that had become close, we needed a mere 12 more receiving yards out of Tyler Boyd and for Joe Mixon to be held to fewer than 64.5 yards. But following Stevenson’s late fumble, the Bengals were able to ground their attack, leaving the Boyd wager dead in the water. In turn, they ran the ball with Mixon to kill the clock. He finished with 65 yards on his last carry of the day. Yes, we lost by one yard—really neat stuff.

For Week 17, the Patriots draw the Miami Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. Should the Patriots win, there remains a path to the playoffs. I have five-player props in mind for this one.

Top 5 Player Prop Bets for Week 17: #5

Patriots RB Damien Harris 1+ touchdown (+235) – DraftKings Sportsbook

**This is a half-unit play.

With Damien Harris left off the injury report, I expect the Patriots to utilize him a fair amount against Miami. Rhamondre Stevenson has admitted to feeling the effects of his heavy workload this season, and he’s dealing with an ankle injury of his own. It does appear he’s trending to play, but Damien Harris’ availability affords the Patriots another quality rushing option.

I expect this to be a competitive game, so I’m betting on the Patriots backfield being involved late rather than the offense playing catch-up. The Dolphins have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season. The Patriots have rushed for 12 touchdowns, of which Damien Harris has contributed three. In games he’s played, he has shown a knack for getting in the end zone. Last year, he ranked third in the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns. During the previous two seasons, he is in the Top 10, despite ceding a significant chunk of the workload to Stevenson this year.

The Patriots should be able to move the ball against the Dolphins. For the season, Miami has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game (244.7). The re-emergence of Kendrick Bourne had the Patriots’ offense looking slightly more explosive downfield, and I think that carries over to this week. On at least one of those drives, I believe Damien Harris will plunge in from a couple of yards out to cash this bet.