Top Prop Bets for Week 16: New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 15 was forgettable. With an opportunity to push further towards a playoff berth, the Patriots came out flat, then turned it around, then finally lost in dramatic fashion as time expired. In an effort to avoid both beating a dead horse and triggering traumatic memories, we won’t spend any time on the most bizarre and embarrassing play in NFL history.
There were bright spots. Kyle Dugger had a beautiful pick-six to turn the game around early in the third quarter, and Rhamondre Stevenson rumbled for a career-high 172 rushing yards in the loss. But the Raiders didn’t go away, tying the game with 0:32 left and proceeding to win on the play-that-shall-not-be-discussed.
As defeating as that was, the Patriots surprisingly still have an outside shot at the playoff. They are on the bubble with three games to go. The Jets loss on Thursday Night Football helped their odds, as the Jaguars surge in the AFC South. With Ryan Tannehill likely lost for the season, it feels increasingly likely that the Jaguars could overtake the Titans for the division. A Titans loss to the lowly Texans in Week 16 would be a jolt for the Patriots in the wildcard race, and New England would be in the mix with the Dolphins, Chargers, and Jets.
Of course, all of this starts with a New England win this week. Without one, the season is all but over, as the Patriots would fall into a crowded group including the Raiders, Browns, and Steelers. New England enters Week 16 as a 3.5 point underdog.
On the betting front, we closed last week at 2-2. Nick Folk hit the over 6.5 kicking points and Derek Carr threw an interception, as expected. Daniel Carlson delivered one field goal when we needed two, and Davante Adams was bottled up short of his 6.5 reception line (four). This puts us at 12-16 for the season. With Week 16 upon us, I’ve got four player props on my radar for the game.
Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 16: #4
Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers over 39.5 receiving yards (-140) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Okay, I said I wouldn’t write about that play and I’m biting my tongue here. Simply put, Jakobi Meyers made a mistake. He wasn’t the first (not even the first on that play), and he won’t be the last. And anyone calling for his exit is either not watching the Patriots with regularity or is trolling.
Jakobi Meyers has been the most consistent and reliable Patriots receiver for three years running. In 11 games this season, he has 52 receptions for 640 yards and three touchdowns. While the numbers don’t jump off the page, Meyers has been largely impressive, given the state of the Patriots passing offense this season.
To suggest that Meyers will suddenly be left out of the Patriots game plan is wild. I’ll admit my first reaction was one of concern, wondering if Bill Belichick’s doghouse could extend to someone so universally loved, utilized, and productive. That lasted about four minutes before I came to my senses. Jakobi Meyers isn’t going anywhere.
This week, he will line up primarily against Bengals cornerback Dax Hill. The rookie has allowed an 85.7% catch rate and 131.3 passer rating this season. Jakobi Meyers has gone under the 39.5 number only twice this season. With the Bengals’ propensity to score, the Patriots will need to keep pace. With DeVante Parker ruled out again, Mac will look to his favorite receiver early and often.