Top Prop Bets for Week 14 MNF: New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals

Let’s get the bad news out of the way. Outside of one surprising touchdown reception by rookie Marcus Jones, the Patriots flat-out stunk in Week 13. The Buffalo Bills focused their offensive efforts on running the ball and chewing clock. Absolutely dominating time of possession, the Bills were never in any danger of losing this game.

With their limited offensive opportunities, the Patriots didn’t do much to help their own case. Mac Jones went another game without throwing an interception but couldn’t get any of his receiving options going. Rhamondre Stevenson only carried the ball ten times, disrupting a rhythm the Patriots’ offense enjoys when Stevenson is churning out yards in bunches.

With the game script completely different than I had expected, our betting didn’t go much better. I went out on a limb and gave eight picks last week, the largest number to date. Coming off a 3-0 week, I was hungry to capitalize on the positive momentum. Our only picks that hit were Stefon Diggs grabbing seven receptions (over 6.5) and Josh Allen with eight carries (over 7.5). Frankly, we got lucky to even hit the latter, needing three Allen kneel-downs (yes, they count) as time expired.

Oh well, the worst is behind us, yea? Unfortunately not. This Patriots team is hurt. Reliable wideout Jakobi Meyers has been ruled out, as well as tackle Isaiah Wynn and cornerback Jalen Mills. Damien Harris is doubtful, and tackles Trent Brown and Yodny Cajuste are questionable.

The good news? Well, the Patriots got a lot of help last week. The Jets, Titans, Dolphins, and Chargers all lost in Week 13, while the Raiders lost already in Week 14. As much as they haven’t played like they deserve to be, the Patriots are still firmly in the playoff hunt, one game behind the New York Jets. And the even better news? The Arizona Cardinals are beatable.

Let’s take a look at my top player props for this crucial Week 14 showdown between the Patriots and Cardinals.

Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 14: #4

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson over 4.5 receptions (-155) – DraftKings Sportsbook

With Damien Harris doubtful to play, the offense will again run through second-year breakout back Rhamondre Stevenson. While Stevenson has seen his carries trend downward in the last two weeks, he remains a relevant receiving option week in and week out. In the last three games, he has hauled in 21 receptions, including six last week against Buffalo. In his last six games, he has gone under five receptions only once.

On top of Harris being doubtful to play, the absence of Jakobi Meyers cannot be understated. Meyers averages 6.7 targets per game this season, while Stevenson averages 5.6. With 67 targets each, they are nearly 30 ahead of their next closest teammate (Hunter Henry with 39). Mac relies on Meyers and Stevenson heavily in the passing game. With Meyers out, at least a few of those targets will go to Stevenson.

The Arizona Cardinals also struggle against backs that are active in the receiving game. Last week against the Chargers, Austin Ekeler brought in 11 passes. The week before, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey brought in seven. At other points this season, the Cardinals have given up five receptions to Dalvin Cook, seven to Alvin Kamara, and nine to McCaffrey when he was with Carolina.

I could see nine or ten targets for Stevenson, with him bringing in six or seven. Take this one confidently. The only reason this is not my top play is the odds of -155.

Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 14: #3

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray over 36.5 rushing yards (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook

I know, I know. I hammered the narrative of the Patriots’ defense’s weakness against mobile quarterbacks last week. While that didn’t play out the way I wanted it to, I am going to double down. Last week, I had Allen gaining over 39.5 yards on the ground; his final number was 20. With Allen, that’s really only one play away, and if we lined up against Buffalo tomorrow, I’d take the same bet again. I believe this was more a result of Buffalo’s commitment to Devin Singletary and the emergence of James Cook.

Kyler Murray averages 6.6 carries and 41.5 yards per game, and that’s with a slow start to the season. In his first five games, Murray averaged 26.6 yards per game on the ground. In his last five games, he is averaging 56.4 rushing yards per game. The Patriots should have opportunities to beat this Cardinals offensive line and pressure Kyler Murray, which should result in a few scramble plays.

As noted last week, Bill Belichick defenses typically struggle against quarterbacks that have that skill set. Lamar Jackson reeled off 11 carries for 107 yards in Week 3, and Justin Fields followed suit with 14 carries for 82 yards in Week 7. Among quarterbacks in the last three years, only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have more rushing yards than Kyler Murray on the ground.

I believe Murray will run seven or eight times on Monday night, to the tune of 40 or 50 yards.

Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 14: #2

Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions (+100) – DraftKings Sportsbook

DeAndre Hopkins has been an animal since he returned for the Cardinals in Week 7. He is averaging nearly 11 targets and just over eight receptions per game in 2022. After some early-week concern about his playing status due to an illness, the Cardinals have to be thrilled to have Hopkins as a full-go in this one. Rondale Moore, on the other hand, has been ruled out with a groin injury. Moore frequently sees double-digit targets out of the slot, with Greg Dortch expected to see most of that work in Moore’s absence. While Greg Dortch has performed well when given an opportunity (nine grabs for 103 yards last week), one must expect Hopkins to see an even higher target share.

DeAndre Hopkins is in the NFL’s top-tier of elite wide receivers. Routinely making highlight-reel grabs, he can be classed with Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Davante Adams. Funny enough (but not really), the Patriots get this group of guys in consecutive weeks. Coming off matchups against Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs, the Patriots get DeAndre Hopkins this week before having Adams and Chase in their next two games.

In the last two games against Jefferson and Diggs, the Patriots’ secondary has yielded 16 receptions for 231 yards and two touchdowns. To make matters worse, starting cornerback Jalen Mills is out with a groin injury. Jonathan Jones should draw much of the work against Hopkins, and while he’s done surprisingly well on the outside for much of the season, he’s unfortunately not a match for Hopkins. I expect the Cardinals to move Hopkins around a little more than usual in an effort to get him in favorable matchups against less experienced corners Jack Jones, Marcus Jones, and Myles Bryant.

Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 14: #1

Patriots TE Hunter Henry over 29.5 receiving yards (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook

My top play of the day is Hunter Henry to go over 29.5 receiving yards. For the same reasons mentioned earlier regarding Rhamondre Stevenson, the Jakobi Meyerthe s absence should also open target share for Hunter Henry. Henry is third on the team in both targets and receptions. With the leading receiver missing, I expect Mac Jones to look for Hunter Henry at a higher rate on Monday night.

While Henry has only eclipsed 30 yards on four occasions this season, the Cardinals are the worst defense in the NFL at defending against tight ends. In 12 games this season, the Arizona defense has allowed 83 receptions for 880 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s 73.33 yards per outing (32nd). It’s not hard to imagine Mac Jones connecting with Henry on a couple of seam routes throughout the game against this weak unit.

While 2022 has been a backslide of sorts for Henry, he has occasionally shown flashes of his 2021 season. He has four games this year north of 50 yards, and I expect this week to be the fifth. I won’t even cite the Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, or even Tyler Higbee stat lines for their respective outings against the Cardinals. I understand Hunter Henry is not one of those guys. But Noah Fant put up 45 and 96 yards in two games this year. Juwan Johnson had 32. Tommy Tremble had 34. Hunter Henry to hit 30 should be easy money.

I believe Henry brings down four or five receptions for 50 or 60 yards, and I think there’s a solid chance at a touchdown this week if you’re feeling the itch (+265 at DraftKings Sportsbook).

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.